229
FXUS63 KDDC 021500
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING WESTERN ZONES, WEST OF US
HIGHWAY 283, THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- FRIDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL FEATURE HOT AFTERNOONS, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH MAY IMPACT FOURTH OF JULY
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, MAINLY
WEST OF ROUTE 283. STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND TRACK INTO
WESTERN KANSAS INTO THIS EVENING AFTER 21Z. WEAK FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT
WITH MUCAPE OF 2500+ J/KG AND DCAPE 1500+ J/KG, ANY STRONGER
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
AROUND QUARTER SIZE. A MRGL RISK IS MAINTAINED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 90S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 30-35 MPH COMMON.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGITS LIKELY MAKING A RETURN TO THE
AREA. WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF THE HEAT AND STAY IN
SHADED AREAS AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY SUNDAY AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND MAY ONCE AGAIN COMMENCE LATE WEEK.
LATEST NBM POPS VARY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH WIDE VARIABILITY DAY TO DAY. THEREFORE, ANY
PARTICULAR DAY OF COVERAGE AND SEVERITY CONFIDENCE IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS AT ALL
AIRPORTS THROUGH 00Z FRI, WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS. ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR/WEST OF GCK THROUGH 00Z FRI, THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
06Z FRI, WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT GCK/DDC AND PERHAPS LBL.
INCLUDED CONVECTIVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY AT GCK/DDC,
BUT KEPT THE HYS TERMINAL DRY FOR NOW. PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40-50 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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