956
FXUS63 KDDC 031018
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
518 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON; SEVERE WEATHER
CONDITIONAL
- HOT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY; ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A HOT SUMMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS MOST LIKELY IN WESTERN ZONES AND ALONG THE
KS/CO BORDER AREAS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR STORM CHANCES,
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, EVEN MORE SO THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY COULD BE LOCALLY
SEVERE. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
GIVEN CAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING STEEP 0-3 AND 3-6 KM
LAPSE RATES OF 8-10 C/KM. A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL LARGER THAN 1"
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE ROBUST AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH
MUCAPE GREATER THAN 3,000 J/KG. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY INTO THE LATE EVENING.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR FOURTH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES, WITH SATURDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AREA. HEAT INDICES BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
BUT WITH MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AROUND THE HOLIDAY, WE STILL
URGE FOLKS TO TAKE HEAT RELATED PRECAUTIONS.
SATURDAY'S SEVERE RISK AND POTENTIAL STORM PLACEMENT WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THUNDERSTORM PROGRESSION AND EVOLUTION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A REMNANT
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. MODELS DIFFER WHERE THIS
WILL EXACTLY SET UP, BUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SEEMS
PROBABLE. WITH INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF
INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT, WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE INITIAL
RISK. INTO THE EVENING, UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE LEADING TO
MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND RISK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AFTER 14Z.
CURRENT ONGOING CONVECTION NORTH OF HAYS AT 10Z IS FORECAST TO
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS ON
THIS CONVECTION AND IF NEEDED WILL ADD A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS TO THE 12Z TAFS FROM 12Z TO 14Z. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WILL BEGIN THE 12Z TAF WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z
TODAY. AFTER 21Z WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHAT STORMS TO DO DEVELOP
LATE DAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT OR ABOVE
9000FT AGL BUT IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS (30% OR LESS). BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORM TO PASS THE GARDEN CITY
AREA WILL BE FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z SATURDAY. FOR DODGE CITY,
LIBERAL AND HAYS, THE BETTER TIMING FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM 01Z
TO 04Z SATURDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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