928
FXUS63 KDDC 031501
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1001 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING; SOME MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- MOST OF INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE DRY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, FAVORING AREAS NORTHEAST OF DODGE
CITY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND IMPACT OUTDOOR HOLIDAY
ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.
- ABOUT 5 DEGREES LESS HOT SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
- TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK; TYPICAL AFTERNOON HEAT
IN THE 90S, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT PEAK HEATING EACH
DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A HOT SUMMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS MOST LIKELY IN WESTERN ZONES AND ALONG THE
KS/CO BORDER AREAS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR STORM CHANCES,
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, EVEN MORE SO THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY COULD BE LOCALLY
SEVERE. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
GIVEN CAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING STEEP 0-3 AND 3-6 KM
LAPSE RATES OF 8-10 C/KM. A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL LARGER THAN 1"
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE ROBUST AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH
MUCAPE GREATER THAN 3,000 J/KG. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY INTO THE LATE EVENING.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR FOURTH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES, WITH SATURDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AREA. HEAT INDICES BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
BUT WITH MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AROUND THE HOLIDAY, WE STILL
URGE FOLKS TO TAKE HEAT RELATED PRECAUTIONS.
SATURDAY'S SEVERE RISK AND POTENTIAL STORM PLACEMENT WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THUNDERSTORM PROGRESSION AND EVOLUTION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A REMNANT
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. MODELS DIFFER WHERE THIS
WILL EXACTLY SET UP, BUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SEEMS
PROBABLE. WITH INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF
INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT, WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE INITIAL
RISK. INTO THE EVENING, UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE LEADING TO
MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND RISK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. ELEVATED
TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH
00Z SAT, GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS. ONCE AGAIN, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21Z FRI, AND CONTINUING
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING. 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
STORMS MAY IMPACT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS THIS EVENING, SO
CONVECTIVE TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORM. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DISSIPATED BY 06-09Z SAT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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