373
FXUS63 KDDC 061940
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER
- BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT
- WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOWED A SOMEWHAT NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO LINE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A SMALL UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION TO OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST. WESTERN KANSAS, IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES, WAS BENEATH QUITE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE LEADING TO CONTINUED CLEAR SKY
AND LARGE SCALE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH TUESDAY, SO SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS IN THE MID TROPOSPHERE IMPINGE ON THE ROCKIES (ALBEIT NOT ALL
THAT STRONG). THIS WILL INDUCE A WEAK LEESIDE TROUGH/LOW ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
LIKELY LEADING TO AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. NORTH OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW, WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY,
AND THE MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE BEST MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) SIGNAL IS TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND SHOULD THIS SIGNAL HOLD, WOULD PRODUCE A
SIZABLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY. LATER ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER
MCS WOULD BE LIKELY GIVEN THE ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
POST-FRONTAL/POST-OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOIST UPSLOPE WINDS. THE PERIOD 1
PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST 24-HOUR WINDOW
FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA RECEIVING A MODEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL,
EVEN THOUGH PROBABILITIES OF 1/2" OR MORE ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO
30% RANGE, HIGHER TOWARD WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.
DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THURSDAY NIGHT MCS, A REPEAT EVENT IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT -- FARTHER SOUTH IF THURSDAY NIGHT'S MCS IS
STRONGER AND PERHAPS FARTHER NORTH IF NOT. THIS LEVEL OF DETAIL IS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT EVEN THREE DAYS OUT.
THE WETTER PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO A DRIER, HOTTER PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. A
VERY LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE 6
TO 10 DAY PERIOD, BUT THERE REMAIN SOME QUESTIONS JUST HOW HOT IT
WILL GET HERE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BECAUSE THE CENTER OF THE
EXPANSIVE UPPER HIGH, ON AVERAGE, WILL LIKELY BE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF
US, SUCH THAT SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE MORE WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, WHICH DOES NOT NECESSARILY EQUATE TO EXTENDED EXCESSIVE
HEAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THERE ARE NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
PREVAILING WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT IN DIRECTION OR SPEED AS
WELL. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE
NEAR-ZERO THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page