720
FXUS63 KDDC 192205
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
505 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 90S.
- NOTICEABLY WARMER ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
UPPER 90S/NEAR 100.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO REAPPEAR FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
STARTING AROUND WEDNESDAY, BUT NOTHING CONCRETE YET.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL LONGWAVE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD
OUT OVER NEARLY ALL AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO A
NEBULOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATES 850-MB WARMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ONLY BE AROUND 1 DEGREE C DESPITE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD
OF THE RIDGE, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS INCHING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON, FOSTERING ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK,
TRANSIENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL POSE LITTLE THREAT OTHER
THAN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. THESE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS SUNSET APPROACHES, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
DAYTIME MONDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO CREEP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE
THIS EVOLUTION IS SUBTLE, THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD
ENGENDER MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AT 850-MB, AND THEREFORE RESULT IN
A LARGER JUMP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE
UPPER 90S/NEAR 100.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ROTATE ANTICYCLONICALLY FIRST
FROM NEAR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THEN
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND FINALLY WESTWARD TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNER REGION. THE END RESULT OF THIS SYNOPTIC
PROGRESSION WILL BE CONTINUED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
TO LOW 100S, AS WELL AS THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FAVORING OUR NORTHERN ZONES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FLIGHT PERIOD.
SKIES ARE FORECAST MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE SYNOPTIC HIGH OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT AROUND 5 KTS AND VARIABLE PRIMARILY OUT OF
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ031-046-065-
066-079>081-089-090.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...KBJ
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