043
FXUS63 KDDC 230634
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
134 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE ARE MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) FOR T-STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- EXTREME HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL APPROACH THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA IS FORECAST TO SURGE
NORTHWARD TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY LINE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND FRONT WILL BE A FAVORED
AREA FOR T-STORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR (500-200MB) IS QUITE WEAK SO THAT
UPDRAFTS WILL TEND TO COLLAPSE QUICKLY, PRECLUDING LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL BE A LARGE HAIL
CONCERN INITIALLY; BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT MID TO UPPER
LEVELS (500MB TEMPERATURE OF -4C) AND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
WILL TEND TO LIMIT HAIL SIZE, WITH STORMS TRANSITIONING TO
OUTFLOW DOMINATED AND LINEAR STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGER STORM CLUSTER
IS LIKELY DURING THE EVENING, WHICH IS THE REASONING BEHIND THE
FORECASTED HIGH RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FROM DODGE CITY
NORTHWARD TO I-70. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF DODGE CITY FOR TODAY AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S COMBINE WITH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES FROM 100 TO 103 TO
YIELD HEAT INDICES FROM 105 TO 108.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND DRY
WEATHER. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD
FOR TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES FROM
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM), WHICH OFTEN STRUGGLES
DURING EXTREME EVENTS, IS SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL FOR THIS HEAT
WAVE AND ONLY SHOWS 102 FOR SUNDAY AND 103 FOR MONDAY. THE
INTENSE HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PASS. BUT TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 100 DEGREES EVEN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FROM DODGE CITY SOUTHWARD. ONE
POSITIVE IS THAT THE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING THAT HELPS CREATE THE
HEAT WILL ALSO TEND TO DILUTE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
VERTICAL, RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES THAT ARE EQUAL TO OR A
LITTLE BELOW THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. HOWEVER, LOOK FOR THE
MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES, WHICH MAY KEEP HEAT
INDICES ON THE HIGH SIDE. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR T-STORMS
BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT ARRIVES; BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS WILL BE ISOLATED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER
22Z AT KGCK, KDDC AND KLBL AND AFTER 00Z AT KHYS. THESE COULD
BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50+ KTS AND LARGE HAIL. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO 15 KTS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING BY 15Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ087-088.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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