689
FXUS63 KDDC 250648
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
148 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
OVER 100 AND WELL OVER 100 IN SOME CASES.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
T-STORMS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY.THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
700 AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTREME UPPER END OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL SPECTRUM, SIMILAR TO THOSE OF 2011 AND 2012.
THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT SOILS WERE DRIER IN THOSE YEARS AND
THERE WAS MUCH LESS GREEUNP DUE TO DROUGHT. THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING TO LEVELS OF THOSE YEARS. HOWEVER,
SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH 107-109 MONDAY. EXPECT VERY HIGH HEAT
INDICES TODAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WE DRY OUT DUE TO DEEP MIXING,
IT WILL BE HOTTER BUT DRIER SO THAT HEAT INDICES REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBER COUNTY
FOR TODAY WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN
KANSAS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND
THIS MAY NEED AN UPGRADE TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW HOT IT GETS AND HOW MUCH
THE AIR DRIES OUT.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY
EVENING DESPITE THE VERY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOWER TEMPERATURES BUT MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY, WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE NON-EXISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS, THESE WILL BE MAINLY SUB-SEVERE. BUT WHEN IT'S 105-108
DEGREES ON MONDAY, IT WON'T TAKE A VERY ROBUST T-STORM TO GET
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
HOTTER CONDITIONS ALONG THE KS/OK LINE AND COOLER BUT HUMID
CONDITIONS ALONG I-70. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL AS T-STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 12 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING BETWEEN 18-22Z. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>089.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ090.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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