745
FXUS63 KDDC 092139
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
439 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- INTENSELY HOT AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 100 EACH DAY.
- THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX WITH IMPROVED RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MINIMAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20%)
EXISTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THIS EVENING WITH THE SREF INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY WITH H5 VORT MAXIMA ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN
COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE,
PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE AREA, PROVIDING MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPE VALUES UPWARD OF 500 J/KG OR SO. WITH STEEPENING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD EARLY EVENING AS EJECTING H5 VORT MAXIMA
INTERACT WITH AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. A FEW CAMS SUGGEST THIS WHILE
THE HREF HINTS AT IT WITH 10% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING
ONLY 0.1 OF AN INCH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE EVENING. A SECONDARY FOCUS WILL BE MORE
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING, INCLUDING THE I-70
CORRIDOR, AS THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING IN A FIELD OF MUCH
HIGHER INSTABILITY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AGAIN TONIGHT AS PREVAILING
SOUTHERLIES REINFORCE A WARMER AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
KANSAS. CONSIDERING THE HREF PAINTS A WIDESPREAD 70-90% PROBABILITY
OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 80F, LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
70S(F). WITH A PERSISTENT PATTERN IN PLACE, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS
BACK UP AROUND 100 TO 105F MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 439 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR/SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH SCATTERED
CIRRUS AT TIMES. RADAR AT 2130Z SUN DEPICTED WEAK HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION AGAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF GCK. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NW OF GCK, AND MADE NO MENTION IN THIS SET
OF TAFS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS AS OF 2130Z
SUN WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER 02Z MON AND BACK MORE SOUTHERLY,
BUT REMAIN ELEVATED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL BRIEFLY AROUND
SUNRISE, BEFORE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME ONCE AGAIN AFTER
15Z MON, GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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