502
FXUS63 KDDC 131653
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1153 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK COLD FRONT FILTER INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL COOK IN THE 105-110 RANGE.
- COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A MODICUM
OF ADDITIONAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, POSING AN ISOLATED, MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIC
DAYTIME THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
KS. WITH THE CORE OF THIS SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED LOW
STRADDLING I-70, A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THE LOW'S BACKSIDE WILL
TRICKLE INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, SHAVING A FEW DEGREES OFF
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S
NORTHWEST TO 105-110 SOUTHEAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS ALSO PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY. WHILE DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR AT OR BELOW 20 KTS WILL LARGELY LIMIT SEVERITY, AN
ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND N OF KS-96 WHERE MULTIPLE HREF
MEMBERS SHOW THE MOST PRONOUNCED CLUSTERING.
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DAYTIME
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FAST OVER SOUTHERN DIXIE ALLEY. THE
PREVIOUS DAY'S SURFACE LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL KS WILL BEGIN TO
WASHOUT AS 500-MB HEIGHTS RISE, BUT A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
BOUNDARY THAT WAS FORCED INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING A MORE MEANINGFUL AND
WIDESPREAD BREAK FROM THE HEAT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 90S THROUGH AN ELKHART-DODGE CITY-HAYS LINE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE INTENSE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 102-106 RANGE ONCE AGAIN. SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY, ALL HREF MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY,
POSING AN ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT BUSINESS WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL JOG IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING QUICKLY
ON MONDAY TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL
MANIFEST IN A COOLING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MONDAY AS DNVA AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE SUPPRESSES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST IN VFR CONTINGENT ON THE
STORMS FORECAST LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE AROUND 0Z, AND
EXPAND/MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. ALL TERMINALS HAVE A >20% TO SEE STORMS
NEARBY SO A VCTS WAS ADDED. GCK IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH
A >30% CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 30-50%. THE
OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS IS HIGH, BUT THE INTENSITY AND SPATIAL
EXTEND IS UNCERTAIN. BY AROUND 7Z, THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
PAST ALL SITES OR DISSIPATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEAKLY OUT OF THE
NORTH AT 5-10 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ031-046-065-
079-080-089.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ066-
081-090.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...KBJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page