318
FXUS63 KDDC 151042
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
542 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S TODAY, AND THE 80S TO LOW 90S
TOMORROW.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WEST
OF US-83 THIS EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD NEXT BUSINESS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
LATE EVENING KDDC RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF
ANOTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ARE SCATTERED OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES, WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RACING EASTWARD. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES, AND THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID-60S NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME SATURDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE CONSECUTIVE EVENINGS WITH CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL THAT HAVE REINFORCED A COOL AIRMASS OVER SOUTHWEST KS,
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES WILL BE SHAVED OFF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 100S SOUTHEAST.
HREF MEMBERS ALL SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN OUR AREA FOR
THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE EVENING, DEPICTING CONVECTION INITIATING IN
SOUTHEAST CO AND GROWING UPSCALE INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER AS
IT CROSSES INTO SOUTHWEST KS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH OUR WESTERN
ZONES, AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MARGINALLY STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS. AS A RESULT, SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE
MODESTLY MORE COMMON SATURDAY EVENING, FAVORING AREAS WEST OF US-83.
DAYTIME SUNDAY, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE, REACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 06Z
MONDAY. DESPITE THE RIDGE DRAWING NEARER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL ENGENDER
A NOTICEABLY COOLER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S, SAVE FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 90S. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ONCE AGAIN POSING AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST RISK.
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN FLAT OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-BUSINESS WEEK, BUT BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND
90S THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAVORING MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TODAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN KEEPING THE WINDS NORTHERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AT THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS. AT DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO KEEP WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
BUT WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE LOCATION
OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE
LATEST CAMS WILL KEEP THE WINDS SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT OCCURRING BETWEEN 21Z TODAY
AND 03Z SUNDAY AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE. CEILINGS WILL STAY IN THE VFR
CATEGORY TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BUT CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE INTO THE 5000 TO 10000FT AGL LEVEL BY LATE DAY AS
THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BURGERT
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