537
FXUS63 KDDC 151842
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
142 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT
WITH AN AXIS OF 1 TO 2" (LOCALLY MORE) OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
- FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED (FOR FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL) FOR COUNTIES MAINLY WEST OF A CIMARRON TO
NESS CITY TO LA CROSSE LINE FOR TONIGHT.
- NOT AS HOT SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT A RETURN TO HEAT LIKELY
TUESDAY, FOR MOST LIKELY ONLY ONE DAY, AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, AS THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON
CIRCULATION REMAINS SHUNTED FARTHER EAST OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
POSITION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS. AT THE
SURFACE, EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING WIDESPREAD
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. OBSERVATIONS AND CLEAR AIR RADAR RETURNS SHOW A
NEBULOUS MESOLOW CIRCULATION BETWEEN DDC AND GCK. A SURFACE THERMAL
RIDGE WAS NOSING NORTHEAST INTO THE RED HILLS REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100F AT MEDICINE LODGE ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND. INITIAL SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME IN VICINITY OF THE MESOLOW AND/OR
THE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR THE HOTTEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAREST
THE OKLAHOMA LINE SOUTH OF DDC.
THE INITIAL STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WITHIN THE HOTTER AIR MASS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF DDC WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE, BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES. FOCUS WILL THEN
TURN FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST AS A MUCH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP AND MATURE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALL RELIABLE SHORT-
TERM, HIGH-RESOLUTION CAMS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS (NAMELY
THE HREF) SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL FOR A HEALTHY MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TRACKING NORTHEAST WITHIN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC THETA-E RIDGE. LATEST NBM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.60 TO 1.75" ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, WHICH IS AROUND THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ABOVE-MENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL SETTING ALONG
WITH HREF LPMM QPF VALUES SHOWING MAX POTENTIAL 2-3" RAINFALL, HRRR
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF WIDELY SCATTERED 1.5 TO 3" RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AND NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF IN THE 2-3" RANGE ALL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH THE STRONGEST, SLOWER-MOVING
STORMS. THE BEST CORRIDOR FOR THIS ACTIVITY AMONG ALL THE MODELS IS
ROUGHLY 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM JOHNSON TO
GARDEN CITY TO DIGHTON TO ELLIS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE NWS
PUEBLO AND NWS GOODLAND OFFICES.
TONIGHT'S HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL MOVE ON INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL
KANSAS PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE WILL PUSH
FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH THANKS TO ALL THE OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS WITH
A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND PREVAILING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS
SHOULD KNOCK AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN 7 TO 10 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION WITH THIS "COOLER", MORE MOIST AIR
MASS HANGING AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY, THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING AS A HOT, DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHWEST WIND AIR MASS REDEVELOPS THANKS TO A NEW SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, THE MAGNITUDE OF CONTINUED
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL MAY LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING POTENTIAL -- OTHERWISE, WE WOULD LIKELY WIDESPREAD HIGHS
AROUND 105 DEGREES AGAIN ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD MOST LIKELY BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD 100S, AS ANOTHER POLAR FRONT MOVES
SOUTH INTO KANSAS THANKS TO A FAIRLY DECENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. THIS POLAR FRONT
WILL OFFER ANOTHER INCREASED CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
AVIATION WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING AS A FAIRLY
WELL-ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) MATURES AND
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. THERE IS HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC AIRPORT
IMPACTS (ESPECIALLY GCK AND HYS) TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING
THUNDERSTORM GROUP WITH AT LEAST A VICINITY THUNDER GROUP AT LBL
AND DDC FOR A TWO TO FOUR HOUR PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS IN GUSTS WILL BE
LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE AFTER 09Z AS THE MCS MOVES DEEPER INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074>076.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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