325
FXUS63 KDDC 310500
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..UPDATED DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- INTENSELY HOT AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THIS
WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 100-105 COMMON EACH DAY.
- REPEATED AFTERNOONS OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT STRESS TOWARD OUTDOOR ACTIVITY, VEGETATION
AND LIVESTOCK.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
LATE EVENING RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED STRONG TO
SEVERE OUTFLOW DOMINANT/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS, IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES, ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
THE OZARKS. STORMS HAVE BEEN PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS, WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH OBSERVED FROM THE ASSOCIATED GUST
FRONTS. NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE
STORMS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. POPS WERE
INCREASED FROM THE NBM, FAVORING THE NORTHERN ZONES, BUT RECENT
RADAR SHOWS STORMS WEAKENING RAPIDLY IN THE INCREASING
INHIBITION.
MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY THERMODYNAMIC CHANGE MONDAY VERSUS
SUNDAY, SO PERSISTENCE IS A GOOD FORECAST TOOL, USING SUNDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES AS A GUIDE. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND
4 PM MONDAY ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OF THOSE OBSERVED SUNDAY, IN THE
100-105 RANGE, AND THE FORECAST LIES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOL-BIASED NBM. GIVEN THESE PREFERRED HOTTER TEMPERATURES,
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(105-107) FOR THE PEAK HEATING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THIS
HEATWAVE, AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT MONDAY, WHICH WILL SERVE TO INCREASE HEAT
IMPACTS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE HEAT DOME MIDLEVEL HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED WELL EAST OF SW KS, WITH SW KS RESIDING UNDER THE
HIGH'S WESTERN PERIPHERY. MODELS SHOW LITTLE THERMAL CHANGE
FROM DAY TO DAY, AS SUCH PERSISTENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD
TEMPERATURE FORECASTING STRATEGY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF
100-105 WILL REMAIN COMMON, AND THE REPEATEDLY HOT AFTERNOONS
WILL HAVE A CUMULATIVE EFFECT ON HEAT-RELATED STRESS.
ALL MODELS SHOW THE HEATWAVE INTENSIFYING, OR AT LEAST
PERSISTING, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES
WESTWARD, CENTERED NEAR TULSA THURSDAY, AND BACK OVER KANSAS
FRIDAY. NBM IS ALREADY FORECASTING WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS OF
100-102, AND AGAIN THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY A FEW DEGREES TOO
LOW. A POSITIVE HEAT FEEDBACK WILL GRADUALLY TAKE SHAPE THIS
WEEK, AS REPEATED SUNNY HOT DRY AFTERNOONS DRY OUT VEGETATION
AND BAKE THE SOIL, WHICH IN TURN ENCOURAGES MORE HOT AFTERNOONS.
SATURDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY WILL FEATURE AN UNSEASONABLY HOT,
PERHAPS HISTORICALLY HOT, LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ALL GLOBAL MODELS
AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ALLOW THE HIGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER OR
NEAR SW KS, WHILE INTENSIFYING TO 598-600 DM. TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY SURPASS 100 ON A DAILY BASIS, ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE ENTIRE NBM FORECAST THROUGH
LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS CORRECTLY COMPLETELY DRY, IN THE VERY
SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
VFR/SKC, SCATTERED CIRRUS, AND LIGHT WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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