715
FXUS63 KDDC 021625
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1125 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
- A STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. FAR WESTERN KANSAS
LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEARER TO THE SURFACE, RAP
MESOANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS IS HELPED PROVIDE THE DYNAMICS FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COOLER AIR FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES
RACE BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S AND INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TODAY, A FEW WEAK POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS DURING
PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR AND CAPE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS (<20 KTS AND <1000 J/KG
RESPECTIVELY), THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH SEVERE
THRESHOLDS. MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH IN THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT FORM, BUT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. CAMS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS REMAINING MOSTLY DRY,
BUT HAVE MOSTLY UNDERREPRESENTED CONVECTION IN THIS PATTERN. THAT
SAID, THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND
REMAIN CLEAR. THE FORECASTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
BELOW 10% FOR ANY SPECIFIC AREA.
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY. HIGHS NEAR
AND PASSED THE 100 DEGREE MARK ALONG WITH A SLIM CHANCE (<10%) FOR
WEAK CONVECTION IN VERY FAR SW KANSAS. AGAIN IN THE EVENT CONVECTION
IS ABLE TO MATERIALIZE, IT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK AND SUB-SEVERE
WITH VERY LIMITED COVERAGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
REPETITION IN PATTERN WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH LOW CHANCES
(10-20%) FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. TIME WILL NEED TO
PASS TO GET A BETTER GRASP ON HOW THEY WILL MATERIALIZE IF AT ALL.
LOOKING FAR AHEAD AT LONG-RANGED ENSEMBLES, A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS HINTED AT NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS COOLER IN
THE LOW/MID 90S. ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES, THIS IS THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DROUGHT RELIEF.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AT A DECREASE IN SPEED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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