559
FXUS63 KDDC 030930
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
430 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
- THURSDAY WILL APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES
- FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAVE A 20-40% CHANCE FOR STORMS IN FAR
WESTERN KANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED BY A LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST OF THE FAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY
DISSIPATING DESPITE THE SURFACE-LEVEL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
THURSDAY HAS CONTINUED TO LOOK LIKE A REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE VERY HOT HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES (AND EVEN UP TO 105
DEGREES), THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ALSO IS REMINISCENT. WITH
STORMS NOT PANNING OUT WEDNESDAY, CAMS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
SIGNAL FOR THURSDAY. AGAIN LIKE WEDNESDAY, SOME WEAK POP-UP SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR WEST KANSAS BUT THESE CHANCES REMAIN <10%.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ARE RIGHT AROUND THE CRITERIA FOR
A HEAT ADVISORY IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES, BUT WITH IT BEING
MARGINAL THE HEADLINE DECISION WILL BE PUNTED TO THE MORNING
FORECAST CYCLE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HOT DAYS WITH HIGHS UP
TO AND EXCEEDING THE TRIPLE DIGIT BARRIER. FRIDAY WILL SIMILARLY
APPROACH CRITERIA, BUT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST SHY OF
THE 105 APPARENT TEMPERATURE MARK. CAMS FOR BOTH DAYS SHOW CHANCES
FOR STORMS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON BOTH LATE AFTERNOONS. ENSEMBLES
PLACE THESE CHANCES AT AROUND 30-40%, BUT THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS MAY MAKE THE TANGIBLE CHANCES FEEL LOWER. LAUGHABLY LOW SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO KEEP STORMS FROM INTENSIFYING ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY'S
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, BUT WITH MORE SHEAR AND
CAPE (30 KTS AND 1200 J/KG FROM NAMNST FORECAST SOUNDINGS), A VERY
MARGINAL SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
IS WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZED HAIL.
AFTER SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL A COUPLE DEGREES.
IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE HARD TO NOTICE BUT
NONETHELESS IT WILL BE COOLER. BY MIDWEEK ON WEDNESDAY, HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH UP TO THE MID-90S. ON WEDNESDAY THIS CONTINUES TO BRING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WHILE CHANCES ARE ONLY
AT AROUND 20-30% VIA ENSEMBLES, IT IS THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANCES FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO SEE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH SO MUCH TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY, MORE TIME WILL BE NEEDED
TO GIVE BETTER DETAILS AND A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE,
WITH LIMITED MID/HIGH CLOUDS. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, WITH GUSTS
OF 24-28 KTS AFTER 15Z THU. STRONGEST WINDS THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED AT HYS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK MORE SELY TOWARD
SUNSET.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...TURNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page