557
FXUS63 KDDC 111739
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1239 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER HANGING ON; GRADUAL WARM UP BEGINNING TODAY, THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, AND TO START NEXT WEEK WHERE TRIPLE-DIGITS LOOK
TO MAKE A RETURN
- SMALL STORM CHANCES TODAY NEAR I-70 THIS EVENING; GREATER
POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND NEXT WEEK
- STRETCH OF COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
SUMMER CONTINUES TO WANT TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION AS
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TODAY, THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEKEND, AND TO START NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT'S
PLACEMENT WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES UPPER 80S OR MID TO UPPER 90S
ON SATURDAY, WITH NORTHERN ZONES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO BE A
TOUCH COOLER. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, EVERYONE IS BACK TO
HOT TEMPERATURES. MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED, WITH 100S
LIKELY MAKING THEIR PRESENCE FELT AGAIN CLOSER TO THE KS/OK
BORDER AREA. NBM PROBABILITIES OF MAXTS >100 IS 40-70% IN AREAS
SOUTH OF ROUTE 50 TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. BEYOND MONDAY, A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STRETCH WILL BE MORE
PROLONGED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MINIMAL FOR PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY,
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CAMS DO ATTEMPT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS GIVEN A FLEETING INFLUENCE
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME ACTIVITY
NEARING I-70 INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN THIS, BUT OVERALL CHANCES
ARE LOW AS WELL AS ANY SEVERE WEATHER. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A
GREATER CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
WILL POSITION ITSELF WEST TO EAST ACROSS KANSAS. MOISTURE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY, FOSTERING MUCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG, WOULD
ALLOW AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. PWATS
AROUND 1.3" AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD PROMOTE WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL GIVEN THE VERY MOIST COLUMN. BULK SHEAR 30-40 KNOTS
WOULD SUGGEST SOME AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZATION OF MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS, AND PERHAPS A TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE, SO
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE FAVORED
AREA FOR ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD BE EAST
OF ROUTE 283, WHERE POPS ARE 20-50% IN THE LATEST FORECAST.
ADDITIONAL WAVES SWEEPING IN THE FROM THE WEST AND BOUNDARY
PLACEMENT WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
SOUTH WINDS AT 15 KTS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 00Z. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE TAF SITES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT OR NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 12 KTS DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...FINCH
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