119
FXUS63 KDDC 120448
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1148 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- THERE ARE MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) FOR T-STORMS FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY, SERVING
TO DELAY THE NEXT HOT SPELL BY A DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE
HEAT WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. RECORD HIGHS ARE NEAR 100 BOTH DAYS; AND THESE COULD BE
TIED OR BROKEN. IT MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER (BUT MORE HUMID) NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AROUND HAYS AND WAKEENEY.
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS BY
MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY NEAR
THE KS/OK STATE LINE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT, T-STORM
CHANCES ARE MODERATE TO HIGH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS, INCLUDING LOCATIONS SUCH AS HAYS, LARNED AND LA
CROSSE. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE PATTERN, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE STILL
SHOWS ONLY MODEST (30-40%) CHANCES FOR .5" OR GREATER OF RAIN,
EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE
PAST WEEK, MUCH LARGER RAIN AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WHEN SEVERAL
T-STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA, WITH MUCH SMALLER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20% OR LESS) FOR STORMS TO
IMPACT DDC AND LBL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT GIVEN
THE VERY LOW CHANCES, ELECTED TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
NOW. WILL EVALUATE CONFIDENCE IN LATER UPDATES. OTHERWISE, A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A WIND
SHIFT THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING
IN HYS AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY 15-20
KNOTS WITH LIGHTER WINDS FOR AREAS LIKE DDC AND LBL, GIVEN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...BENNETT
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