318
FXUS63 KDDC 121532
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1032 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- LIMITED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY.
- FORECAST CARRIES TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY SUNDAY; TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT.
- HOT WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS MONDAY, NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100.
- NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MESOANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN ENHANCED WAVE SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CROSSING INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SLOW AND
PERHAPS STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. HAVE PUSHED POPS A TAD EARLIER THAN NBM HAD GIVEN
TO ACCOUNT FOR HREF MEMBERS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
21-23Z. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
INCREASED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS, AND MLCAPE 2500-3000
J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD
YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WET
MICROBURSTS AND SEVERE HAIL. PWATS WILL ALSO BE AROUND
1.3-1.5", WHICH IS EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR TODAY, SO
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL
DIMINISH INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING, WITH STORMS STILL A
POSSIBILITY INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES.
HOT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TODAY, SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S, THOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE 80S. EVERYWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET BACK INTO THE 90S AND EVEN A
FEW 100S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST
DAY WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES,
ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE SPLIT ONCE AGAIN BY A COLD FRONT.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE FRONT POSITIONED FROM LARNED, THROUGH
DODGE CITY, AND DOWN TOWARD LIBERAL. AREA SOUTH OF THAT AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S AND CLOSE TO 100 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS, WHEREAS AREAS NORTH WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
IT IS NOT UNTIL TUESDAY WHERE EVERYONE IS SEEING REPRIEVE FROM
THE HEAT WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT SOME 50S AND LOW 60S
COULD WORK THEIR WAY INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE FORECAST NEARLY EVERY DAY WITH
SOME VARYING LEVEL OF CHANCE AND PLACEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
ANALYSIS AT 1530Z SHOWED THE COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY CLEARED HYS,
GCK AND DDC WITH ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR LBL SOON. WITH THE FASTER COLD FRONT
TIMING, ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST
OF THE AIRPORTS, AND THIS SET OF TAFS WAS KEPT DRY. INCREASING
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z SUN BEHIND
THE FRONT, BUT VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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