455
FXUS63 KDDC 130608
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
108 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY; SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY
- AREA-WIDE HEAT MONDAY; RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE WITH UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100
- VERY LOW STORM CHANCE TODAY; GREATER CHANCES NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED RIGHT ALONG, OR JUST
SOUTH, OF THE KS/OK BORDER. HOW THIS BOUNDARY MEANDERS BACK
NORTHWARD INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE HOW HOT THE AREA
CAN GET. GIVEN MAX TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY AND FRONT PLACEMENT,
HAVE KNOCKED DOWN TEMPERATURES A FEW TOUCHES FROM THE NBM
OUTPUT. A FEW SOLUTIONS LIKE MET REMAIN TOO COLD, AND MAV IS
BETTER BUT STILL MAY BE A TOUCH TOO LOW. AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED, NBM IS PROBABLY RUNNING TOO HOT WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT. TO COMPROMISE, MAINTAINED UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT DECREASED THEM NORTHWARD FROM THERE.
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE OVERDONE IN SOME SPOTS, BUT GENERALLY
LIKE WHERE THE FORECAST IS AT FOR NOW.
VERY LITTLE DOUBT ON THE HEAT'S EXTENT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD AND CLEARS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 LOOKS PROBABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SEPTEMBER 14TH. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STIFF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE BE 25-35
SUSTAINED, WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STORM CHANCES ARE MINIMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
POPS AROUND 20% OR LESS AT BEST. THE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR A STORM OR TWO, BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AND ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LOSE STEAM VERY
QUICKLY AFTER DARK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, NOT MUCH GOING FOR ANYTHING SEVERE WITH MUCH LOWER SHEAR
THAN YESTERDAY. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE RISK SHOULD A STORM OR
TWO DEVELOP. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
AND INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES INTO THE
PLAINS AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THIS REGIME, WITH LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS
60-80% MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVITY, BUT DAY TO DAY DETAILS WILL BE
IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
THUNDERSTORM HAVE CLEARED THE AREA AND THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT COVERAGE OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. CHANCES ARE 20% OR LESS, SO NO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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