702
FXUS63 KDDC 141612
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1112 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY GUSTING 35-45 MPH.
- NEAR RECORD HEAT MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE NORTHWEST ZONES MONDAY
EVENING, WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
OF 60-70 MPH.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY, WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SW KS (MUCH COOLER NORTH, STILL HOT SOUTH).
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
LATE NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWED QUITE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO INTO
WESTERN MONTANA WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER
TROPOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN HAS SHUNTED THE EFFECTIVE
NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON CIRCULATION TO THE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
NEW MEXICO INTO COLORADO, WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MOIST CIRCULATION PATTERN BECOMING INFUSED WITH THE
POLAR SYSTEM MOVING IDAHO AND MONTANA.
THE POLAR SYSTEM UP NORTH WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MONDAY NIGHT, AND AN ASSOCIATED POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
BY MONDAY NIGHT. A SUB-1000MB SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OUT OF A BROAD LEESIDE TROUGH, WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
SURFACE LOW. THUS, THE BEST FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT WEST ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE
MAJORITY OF CAMS ARE LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH CONVECTIVE SIGNAL
ALL ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH, AND USING HREF ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITY OF ECHO TOPS > 45 KFT WOULD SUPPORT THE NOTION FOR
AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE STRENGTH OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED FAIRLY CLOSELY TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH
SEVERE WIND RISK DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
MONDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE THE LAST UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 DEGREE DAY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AS TUESDAY
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER (I.E. DIGHTON HIGHS OF 97F MONDAY,
74F TUESDAY). THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BISECT KANSAS FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST, AND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, MAINLY
FOCUSED ON OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS AT ALL
AIRPORTS THROUGH 00Z TUE, GUSTING 30-40 KTS. VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AN EHA-GCK-HYS LINE BY 00Z TUE, WITH A PRIMARY
RISK OF OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS. INCLUDED A VCTS/CB MENTION
AT GCK/HYS FOR THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY, AND KEPT DDC/LBL TAFS
DRY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED DAYLIGHT
TUESDAY, WITH AN ABRUPT NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT THE AIRPORTS.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 25-28 KTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY, WITH LOWERING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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