350
FXUS63 KDDC 142155
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
455 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY GUSTING 35-45 MPH.
- NEAR RECORD HEAT MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE NORTHWEST ZONES MONDAY
EVENING, WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
OF 60-70 MPH.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY, WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SW KS (MUCH COOLER NORTH, STILL HOT SOUTH).
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
STRONG SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT MIDDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST MIDLEVEL FLOW ALOFT
OVER SW KS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MONSOON CIRCULATION OVER SW KS, WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
NORTHWEST OF DODGE CITY. RADAR INDICATED A FEW SPRINKLES
EMBEDDED IN THIS MONSOON PLUME ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP IN THIS MOISTURE PLUME AFTER 4 PM, FAVORING THESE
NORTHWEST ZONES. PRIMARY RISK IN THE HOT, MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS OF 50-70 MPH, PER SPC 5-15%
WIND PROBABILITY FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD FOCUS ALONG I-70 MONDAY EVENING, AND NBM CORRECTLY HAS
ITS HIGHER POPS HERE.
ELSEWHERE, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET,
GUSTING 35-45 MPH. DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR THE RECORDS FOR SEPTEMBER 14 (100 AT DDC).
FORTUNATELY, MONDAY'S HEAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH SW KS TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT'S
TIMING DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE, A LARGE TEMPERATURE
RANGE WILL UNFOLD TUESDAY, FROM 60S AND 70S NORTH, TO NEAR 100
SOUTHEAST. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN ZONES AT
SUNRISE, AND EXIT BARBER COUNTY BY 7 PM. EXACT HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR EACH LOCATION WILL DEPEND OF FRONTAL TIMING, AND A NON-
DIURNAL CURVE DOWNWARD IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS. 12Z GFS SHOWS DECENT COLD ADVECTION
FOR SEPTEMBER, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
TEENS C. INCREASING AND LOWERING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO ADD
TO THE FALL-LIKE FEEL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BOTH BE MODEST AT BEST, BUT
STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS,
PER SPC MARGINAL 5% WIND PROBABILITY SOUTHEAST ZONES. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN RETREATING NORTHWARD QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH WINDS QUICKLY RETURNING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WARM ADVECTION PROCESS SHOULD ENCOURAGE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PROBABLE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
NBM RELOADS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S AS
SOON AS WEDNESDAY, BUT MUCH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS SW KS IN
THE 80S. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAT RETURNING THURSDAY, WELL
INTO THE 90S, ALONG WITH A DRY FORECAST, AS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND. MEX AND NBM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 455 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
RADAR AT 2140Z MON DEPICTED SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE HYS AND GCK TERMINALS, MOVING NORTHEAST. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT GCK/HYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KTS THE PRIMARY RISK TO AVIATION.
AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY FOR GCK/HYS TAFS AS STORMS APPROACH. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE EXPECTED
COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY, EXPECTED TO CLEAR ALL AIRPORTS BY
18Z TUE. INCREASED NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
GUSTING 30-32 KTS TUESDAY, WITH LOWERING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING AT GCK.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page