501
FXUS63 KDDC 150625
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
125 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE YOUNG AUTUMN SEASON DUE IN TODAY
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH,
GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT TO THEIR HIGHS LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
MOST AREAS 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
- THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE BULLET WILL BE THE SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES, AS THEY WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH AFTERNOON -- HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S (100 NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION HARDTNER/KIOWA AREAS OF BARBER COUNTY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THE LAST OF EVENING/LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG ROUGHLY NESS CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
MEADE LINE SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z. THE REMNANT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY DISSOLVE ALL TOGETHER OVERNIGHT, AND THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.
ON THE MIDNIGHT CDT ANALYSIS, OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING NORTHERLY
WINDS APPROACHING THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTHWESTERN KANSAS,
BUT THE NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WAS STILL UP IN NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
IN THE SANDHILLS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S (51F AT CHADRON, NE). AS THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM UP NORTH
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AND EXPAND QUICKLY SOUTH TODAY.
TEMPERATURES, LOW CLOUD COVER, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALL BE
CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST TODAY WITH THE FIRST TRUE SHOT OF AUTUMN
AIR INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLER AIR UP
NORTH AND LATEST MODELS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT, WE HAVE
TRENDED COOLER WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST -- GOING LOWER THAN THE
BASELINE NBM, INCORPORATING SOME CONSSHORT WEIGHT WHICH HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES AND BETTER REPRESENTATION OF
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW CLOUD
COVER PREVENTING A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTH OF A HUGOTON
TO DODGE CITY KINSLEY LINE.
EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH, THE FRONTAL
ZONE AROUND 5 KFT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH RESPECTABLE DEWPOINTS OF +14 TO +16C AT THAT ~5 KFT
LEVEL (850MB). SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL ALSO BE WELL WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STILL FAIRLY COHERENT NORTH AMERICAN
MONSOON CIRCULATION WHICH AS NOT BEEN DISRUPTED AS OF YET IN THIS
PATTERN (MAINLY THANKS TO A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH OF 597
DECAMETERS AT 500MB CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. POPS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AS A RESULT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
DIFFICULT AVIATION WEATHER COMING UP LATER TODAY WITH WIND SHIFT
TIMING ISSUES, HOW STRONG GUSTS WILL BE BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT,
HOW QUICKLY CEILING WILL FALL THROUGH MVFR DOWN INTO IFR (LATE
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING), AND WHETHER WE GET ENOUGH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CARRY PROB30 THUNDER. THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PROB30 THUNDER AT HYS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
BUT KEPT GCK, DDC, AND LBL DEVOID OF THUNDER FOR NOW. THERE IS HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WITH THE FRONT, AND MOST
AIRPORTS WILL FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY NOT LONG AFTER THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT GCK AND HYS. THE STRATUS MAY COME TO
A HALT FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEADING EDGE MAY ERODE SOME
WITH INSOLATION, BUT ONCE THE SUN ANGLE LOWERS AGAIN EARLY THIS
EVENING, JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL WELL INTO IFR AT SOME
POINT TUESDAY NIGHT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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