935
FXUS63 KDDC 151520
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1020 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON ARRIVES TUESDAY,
WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
- SOUTH WINDS QUICKLY RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ALLOWING
FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY HOT AFTERNOONS IN THE 90S.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN THIS
WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THE LAST OF EVENING/LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG ROUGHLY NESS CITY TO DODGE
CITY TO MEADE LINE SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z. THE REMNANT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY DISSOLVE ALL
TOGETHER OVERNIGHT, AND THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE
STRONG COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.
ON THE MIDNIGHT CDT ANALYSIS, OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING NORTHERLY
WINDS APPROACHING THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS, BUT THE NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WAS STILL UP IN
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE SANDHILLS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD
FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S (51F AT CHADRON, NE). AS THE
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM UP NORTH CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
AND EXPAND QUICKLY SOUTH TODAY. TEMPERATURES, LOW CLOUD COVER,
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALL BE CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST
TODAY WITH THE FIRST TRUE SHOT OF AUTUMN AIR INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF COOLER AIR UP NORTH AND LATEST
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT, WE HAVE TRENDED COOLER WITH
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST -- GOING LOWER THAN THE BASELINE NBM,
INCORPORATING SOME CONSSHORT WEIGHT WHICH HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES AND BETTER REPRESENTATION OF HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW CLOUD
COVER PREVENTING A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTH OF A
HUGOTON TO DODGE CITY KINSLEY LINE.
EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH, THE FRONTAL
ZONE AROUND 5 KFT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH RESPECTABLE DEWPOINTS OF +14 TO +16C AT THAT ~5 KFT
LEVEL (850MB). SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL ALSO BE WELL WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STILL FAIRLY COHERENT NORTH AMERICAN
MONSOON CIRCULATION WHICH AS NOT BEEN DISRUPTED AS OF YET IN THIS
PATTERN (MAINLY THANKS TO A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH OF 597
DECAMETERS AT 500MB CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. POPS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AS A RESULT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 15Z DEPICTED A STRONG COLD FRONT MAKING
PROGRESS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS ACROSS NW KS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS
THROUGH ALL AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH AN ABRUPT
INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS, GUSTING 30-32 KTS. WITH THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AIRPORTS BY 00Z WED,
ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON THE FRONT SHOULD NOT IMPACT AVIATION
OPERATIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL DEGRADE
AFTER 00Z WED, AS IFR STRATUS FILLS IN OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN BR/-SHRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
12Z WED. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z WED,
TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z WED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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