126
FXUS63 KDDC 161938
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- COOLER WEATHER IS PREDICTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, RESULTING IN A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR
FRIDAY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY IS 101. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF T-STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS A FRONTAL
ZONE SAGS SOUTHWARD; BUT MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL LIKELY
STAY DRY. THERE ARE BETTER CHANCES FOR T-STORMS SATURDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
UNDERNEATH SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. T-STORM CHANCES LINGER
INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
CLUSTERS OF T-STORMS WILL PUSH AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN T-STORM CHANCES, PARTICULARLY
FOR FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS 60-80% CHANCES
OF .5” OR GREATER RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS FOR THE FRIDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME, WHICH IS A
GOOD SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF BENEFICIAL RAIN.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND T-STORM CLUSTERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S, WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NEAR
I-70 AND WARMEST AROUND MEDICINE LODGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
MORNING STRATUS HAS SINCE LIFTED/SCATTERED TO VFR, MOST
RECENTLY AT HAYS (KHYS REPORTED SCT017 AT 1824 UTC). LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MID-DAY ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20KT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG OR
STRATUS COULD RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT THE HAYS
TERMINAL. AT PRESENT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW W/REGARD TO WHETHER OR
NOT STRATUS/ FOG WILL REDEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-70
CORRIDOR IN TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH/VINCENT
AVIATION...VINCENT/FINCH
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