817
FXUS63 KDDC 170410
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1110 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KS WILL HAVE TO ENDURE ANOTHER STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WILL USHER IN A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES MON-THU.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING REVEAL A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ARK-LA-
MISS REGION AND A CUT-OFF LOW UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CA. THE RESULTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES HAS INDUCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LEE
CYCLONE IN EASTERN CO THAT WILL DEEPEN DAYTIME THURSDAY LEADING TO
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. THESE
MODESTLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION
TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW LOW 100S ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE RED
HILLS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS HREF MEMBERS KEEP ALL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OUR AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEREFORE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS TO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
DAYTIME FRIDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS WILL OPEN, ALLOWING EASTERLY MOMENTUM TO BUILD AS IT
REACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY 06Z SATURDAY. WHILE THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, PERSISTENT 15-25
MPH SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROMOTE ANOTHER SUMMER-LIKE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S. THE SLIGHT 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS MAY PERMIT SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FAVORING OUT NORTHWEST ZONES,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH, AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY RAIN
FREE.
SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TREK ALONG THE
NORTHERN CONUS AS THE RIDGE LOSES STRENGTH. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S, BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BRING THE FIRST TRULY COOL AIRMASS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
FALL SEASON. NBM HIGHS ON SUNDAY PLUMMET INTO THE MID 70S TO MID
80S, AND STAY LOCKED IN THAT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ABUNDANT SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE NBM PAINTS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE CATEGORY (25-54%) POPS
SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA EACH DAY, BUT THE CLEAR FRONT-RUNNER WILL
BE WITH THE COLD FROPA WHEN LIKELY (55-74%) AND DEFINITE
(75-100%) POPS ARE COMMON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS
A LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN CO DEEPENS. WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED IN THE
12-17 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 27 KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD BEFORE WEAKENING TO 10-12 KTS AFTER
SUNSET.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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