253
FXUS63 KDDC 301606
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1106 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY, TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE DAY; AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- AFTER THE STEADY RAIN ENDS, A FEW SMALL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 8 PM.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
- THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
** MESOSCALE DISCUSSION **
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK, PRIMARY IN THE FORM OF
WEAK/SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES DUE TO LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES, WILL INCREASE AFTER 17Z, PEAKING ROUGHLY 19-22Z TIME
FRAME, AT THE NOSE OF AN ADVANCING MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AIR
STREAM MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE FAIRLY STRONG PER LATEST (1546Z) KDDC 88D
VAD WIND PROFILE (VWP). VWP SHOWED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
0-1KM AGL SRH UP TO 150-200 M2/S2. THIS, COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE 0-3KM AGL TRUNCATED SBCAPE, WILL SUPPORT MODEST
LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS, YIELDING
INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL AS LFC HEIGHTS ARE WELL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR HIGH PLAINS SEVERE WEATHER SETUPS
CONSIDERING THE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS IN.
THUS, ANY SURFACE HEATING FROM INSOLATION WITHIN THE DRY
INTRUSION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF SUCH LOW-
TOPPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THEY ADVANCE NORTHEAST, TO THE
EAST OF A SURFACE LOW/DEFINED SURFACE VORTICITY MAX. BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ANY LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL AND ASSOCIATED
TORNADO RISK WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DEEPER INTO CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HEAVY RAIN IS STILL ON TRACK; AND SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2". THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE POLO WILL PASS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY, WITH THE
STEADY RAINS ENDING DURING MID MORNING (LIBERAL), MIDDAY (DODGE
CITY) AND LATE AFTERNOON (HAYS). GIVEN THE EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ALONG WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, EXCESSIVE
RAINS ARE LIKELY. THUS, A THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINS IN PAWNEE COUNTY
TUESDAY, THIS COUNTY WAS ADDED TO THE WATCH.
AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AT MID LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY RAIN,
AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION AS
TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE UPPER 60S AT SUNRISE INTO THE MID
70S. SURFACE BASED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HAPPEN PROVIDED
THAT THIS MODEST WARMING DOES OCCUR. GIVEN THE TROPICAL-LIKE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS AND LACK OF A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION, IT
WON'T TAKE MUCH HEATING FOR STORM INITIATION. EXPECT INITIAL
STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF DODGE CITY BY MID DAY, WITH THE
STORM CHANCES SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUD BASES, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70, ALONG WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL
SRH, A FEW SMALL TORNADOES ARE LIKELY. BACKED WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
SRH. ALTHOUGH VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THIS
PATTERN; EVEN A SMALL TORNADO FROM A MINIATURE, LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELL CAN DO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE, ALBEIT IN A VERY NARROW
SWATH.
EVEN AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN IS OVER, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SO THAT ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY COULD REACH
3 TO 4" OR EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS TUESDAY. 75-90TH PERCENTILES OF THE VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THESE LOCALIZED, HIGHER-END AMOUNTS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S, WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 40
IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. OF COURSE, THESE READINGS ARE NOT THAT
UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL LIFT NORTH AND TAPER OFF LATER THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS
WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAINFALL
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOP/MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AFTER 18Z TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AS THE RAIN ENDS.
CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2500FT
AGL WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF 500FT CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THE CEILINGS WILL ALSO
IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HAYS WHERE
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CEILINGS BEFORE 06Z WEDNESDAY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
061>065-074>078-084>087.
UPDATE...UMSCHEID
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...BURGERT
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