285
FXUS63 KDDC 010604
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
104 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE DRY
SLOT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- RAIN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE, WITH
1/2 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH ELEVATED
NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING IN THE 60S.
- THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S.
- A LONG DRY STRETCH IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
MIDDAY RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE REMNANT MID
LEVEL VORTICITY MAX FROM PACIFIC HURRICANE POLO, MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SW KS. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. PRIMARY CLOSED, EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE WAS STILL BACK OVER NEW MEXICO. SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTED THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE NW PANHANDLES,
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
MESOANALYSIS ALREADY DEPICTS ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS, FAVORING THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, WITH MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY POISED SOUTH OF
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER (CAPE > 1000 J/KG). THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
A MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTH INTO SW KS, PUSHING
STRATIFORM RAIN NORTH, ALLOWING INSTABILITY AND CLEARING TO
SPREAD NORTH, AND ENCOURAGE RAPIDLY REDEVELOPING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 2 PM. WITH EXTREMELY LOW LCLS,
AND A SATURATED TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR,
WEAK TROPICAL TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. THESE ARE NOT THE SAME
ANIMALS AS SUPERCELL TORNADOES OF OUR SPRING SEASONS, BUT ARE
STILL CAPABLE OF CAUSING MINOR DAMAGE, AND ANY TORNADO WATCHES
AND WARNINGS STILL NEED TO BE RESPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HIGHLIGHTING WEAK TORNADOES MAY ALSO
BE ISSUED FROM DDC FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS.
TONIGHT, AS THE HURRICANE REMNANTS EJECT NORTH INTO NEBRASKA AND
IOWA, THE EXTRATROPICAL CUTOFF MIDLEVEL CYCLONE WILL BE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS REMAIN TONIGHT, TO CATCH ANY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY, A SIGNIFICANT LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT PREVAILS. WIDESPREAD
DEFORMATION RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND ADJACENT FAR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY.
MODELS FORECAST THE CLOSED MIDLEVEL CYCLONE TO WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND EJECT EASTWARD DIRECTLY OVER KANSAS
DAYLIGHT THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WITH THE PRIMARY DEFORMATION LIFT THURSDAY, AND POP
GRIDS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY/DEFINITE CATEGORIES MUCH OF THURSDAY
FOR MANY ZONES AS A RESULT. ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS
PROBABLE THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE PREFERRED DEFORMATION
AXIS SETS UP. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING/ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S. MAINTAINED THE INHERITED FLOOD
WATCH TO COVER HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS OF DEFORMATION RAINFALL
FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS.
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER RAPIDLY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A CLEAR SKY
AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING SOUTH INTO KANSAS THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. FRIDAY PROMISES TO DELIVER A BEAUTIFUL FALL
AFTERNOON, WITH SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S, AND LIGHT
WINDS. A CLEAR SKY, LIGHT WINDS, AND 1025 MB SURFACE RIDGING
WILL PROVIDE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING, PROVIDING THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YOUNG FALL SEASON. NBM TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SATURDAY
MORNING WERE ACCEPTED. A LONG STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND RIDGING PREVAILING OVER THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AFTER 09Z AT KGCK AND KDDC. BUT AT THE VERY LEAST
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY AT THESE SITES FROM 08Z THROUGH
13Z. AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, WITH NUMEROUS T-STORMS FORMING BY 15-17Z AND SPREADING
EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AFTER 20Z,
A STRATIFORM RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND LAST FOR A FEW HOURS AND
THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY GUST TO
OVER 30KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15-23 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
061>065-074>078-084>087.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...FINCH
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