950
FXUS63 KDDC 010653
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
153 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
- THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
- AFTER TODAY, A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT WEEKEND, WITH WARM TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
WEAK UPSLOPE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING AT KDDC AND KGCK, WHICH MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY
GIVEN THE MOIST LOW LEVELS, CLOUD COVER AND UPSLOPE WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED 700-300MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THAT LAYER COOLING ABOUT 5C FROM TODAY'S VALUES. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
35 MPH. T-STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND ALSO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT GIVEN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
ABSENT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO EASTERLY FROM THE SURFACE
UP THROUGH 500MB. BETTER HIGH LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED, WITH A TRANSITION
TO STRATIFORM RAIN THAT WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS MAINTAINED FOR TODAY DESPITE THE
LACK OF FLOODING SO FAR. GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOVEMENT, ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. TEMPERATURES WON'T GET ABOVE THE
60S FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE STRONG
NORTH WINDS, IT WILL FEEL CHILLY.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT AFTER SKIES CLEAR, WITH 40S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE BY THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THE MID TO HIGH
LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES, WITH WEAK
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE WARM PATTERN WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AFTER 09Z AT KGCK AND KDDC. BUT AT THE VERY LEAST
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY AT THESE SITES FROM 08Z THROUGH
13Z. AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, WITH NUMEROUS T-STORMS FORMING BY 15-17Z AND SPREADING
EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AFTER 20Z,
A STRATIFORM RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND LAST FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY GUST TO
OVER 30KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15-23 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
061>065-074>078-084>087.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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