591
FXUS63 KDDC 011605
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1105 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
- THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
- AFTER TODAY, A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT WEEKEND, WITH WARM TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
WEAK UPSLOPE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING AT KDDC AND KGCK, WHICH MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY
GIVEN THE MOIST LOW LEVELS, CLOUD COVER AND UPSLOPE WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED 700-300MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THAT LAYER COOLING ABOUT 5C FROM TODAY'S VALUES. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
35 MPH. T-STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND ALSO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT GIVEN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
ABSENT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO EASTERLY FROM THE SURFACE
UP THROUGH 500MB. BETTER HIGH LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED, WITH A TRANSITION
TO STRATIFORM RAIN THAT WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS MAINTAINED FOR TODAY DESPITE THE
LACK OF FLOODING SO FAR. GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOVEMENT, ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. TEMPERATURES WON'T GET ABOVE THE
60S FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE STRONG
NORTH WINDS, IT WILL FEEL CHILLY.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT AFTER SKIES CLEAR, WITH 40S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE BY THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THE MID TO HIGH
LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES, WITH WEAK
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE WARM PATTERN WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS TRACK WESTWARD ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFTING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
EASTERN KANSAS, AFFECTING THE VICINITY OF KHYS, KGCK, AND POSSIBLY
KDDC. OTHERWISE, PREVAILING LOW LEVEL STRATUS STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN VICINITY OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN SPREADING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY
NUDGES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, ALLOWING MVFR/IFR CIGS
TO PERSIST/REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE
EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT
ARE FORECAST TO INITIALLY DEVELOP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GENERALLY
AFTER 18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA, THEN BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN
OFF THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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