291
FXUS63 KDDC 020600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REMAINING RAIN WILL END RAPIDLY THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
CLEARING SKY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- SOME OF THE MOST BEAUTIFUL DAYS OF THE YEAR EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS, AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.
- COOLEST MORNING OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED SATURDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING EAST
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES OF
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO A LOW IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS EXTENDS
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS/CAMS, ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN END WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
SREF INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENING UP AS IT BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, GIVING
WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE FOR
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING AS ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM
PROLONGED RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY LENDS TO A HEIGHTENED
FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING HIGH QPF SIGNALS AS WELL AS SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PW VALUES NEARING 1.5 INCHES. A MUCH
DRIER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER/MID-LEVELS DOMINATES THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT, DROPPING H85 TEMPERATURES BELOW 10C ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST HREF, THERE IS A BETTER THAN 90% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES SLIPPING BELOW 50F IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IN VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO A 50-70%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 55F IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. SO, LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 50S(F) SOUTHEAST. FOR A CHANGE, UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AS DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST REINFORCES A COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, HOLDING H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN
AROUND 10-12C. WITH THE HREF PAINTING A WIDESPREAD 90%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 60F, EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS UP INTO THE 60S(F) WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE THERE IS A 80-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
TOPPING 65F. REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING REDEVELOPS
IN EASTERN COLORADO, RETURNING SOUTHERLIES TO WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS WILL TAP INTO SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO OUR SOUTH, HELPING
PUSH H85 TEMPERATURES ABOVE 13-15C. UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE, EXPECT
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 70S(F) FOR
HIGHS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SKIES WERE CLEARING AT THE TAF SITES AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA. LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KDDC AND KLBL WILL BECOME VFR BY
08Z AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING, EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 10-12
KTS OR LESS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH
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