712
FXUS63 KDDC 021713
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1213 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TRANSITIONING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE SREF INDICATES RIDGING ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDING AS IT EDGES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, LENDING TO A FAIRLY WEAK WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE,
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLIES SATURDAY WILL BE SLOW TO TAP INTO MOISTURE,
DOING LITTLE TO INTRODUCE/INCREASE ANY INSTABILITY TO THE AREA.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS SLOWLY DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DOES LITTLE TO ERODE THE COOLER
AIR MASS WITHIN EASTERLY UPSLOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
KANSAS. THE LATEST HREF SHOWS A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW 50F IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TO 50-70% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES SLIPPING BELOW 55F IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS, SO LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 40S(F),
ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE LOWER 50S(F) CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL STRATUS
JUST SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA LINE POTENTIALLY EDGING BACK NORTH A BIT.
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS DEVELOPING SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEEPENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL DRAW SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, PUSHING H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 15C IN CENTRAL KANSAS
TO NEAR 20C NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 70S(F) WITH THE HREF PAINTING A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 70F. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONT PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MORNING,
HELPING CAP THE WARMING TREND BRIEFLY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY GENERALLY AFTER 23-01Z THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION PUSHES
FARTHER EAST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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