165
FXUS63 KDDC 031659
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1159 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
EARLIER THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED WEST OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND EXTENDED FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NEVADA. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEBRASKA INTO WYOMING. SOUTH OF THIS
COLD FRONT THERE WAS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS A COOL SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND AS IT DOES THE NEBRASKA COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS COLD FRONT
PASSES A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR. THIS
REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BUT WHAT IT
WILL DO IS KEEP TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY MAINLY IN THE 70S
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE START OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
AFTER MONDAY THE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD AS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES AND 850MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
20 TO 25C RANGE BY LATE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
THAT WILL BRIEFLY DROP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID WEEK.
CURRENTLY ENSEMBLES NOT SHOWING MUCH, IF ANY, COOLER AIR WITH
THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT SETTLES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID
WEEK BUT IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK GIVEN THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES LATE WILL ALSO RESULT IN A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL ALLOW GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS TO RETURN ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WE WILL BE MONITORING A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH. MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS BOUNDARY CROSSING THE GARDEN CITY
AND HAYS AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z SUNDAY AND THEN THE DODGE CITY
AND LIBERAL AREAS TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
SUNDAY . FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE A 2 TO 4 HOUR
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STATUS (1000-2000FT AGL) AND/OR MVFR
FOG, ESPECIALLY IN THE GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL AREAS BASED ON
THE LATEST MODELS. CHANCE FOR THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE 20-40%.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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