606
FXUS63 KDDC 070446
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND
GARDEN CITY.
- A WEAK WIND SHIFT FORECAST OVERNIGHT GOING FROM SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDY CONDITIONS APPEARING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS PRIMARILY ZONAL WITH A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER COLORADO. THIS ZONAL FLOW
IS HELD BY ENSEMBLES FOR A WEEK UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST. THAT SYSTEM APPEARS AT THIS POINT TO
BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR >5% PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT ARRIVES. IN THE
MEANTIME, A VERY CONSISTENT PATTERN OF SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER ACROSS SW KANSAS.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S. WINDS IN
THE OVERNIGHT WILL STAY MOSTLY LIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 16Z AS A SUBTLE
BOUNDARY CRAWLS ACROSS THE CWA. THE HRRR HAS FOG DEVELOPING AROUND 4-
7 AM AROUND GARDEN CITY. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THIS ONLY IS PRESENT
IN THE VERY LOCALIZED AREA, BUT FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY IN FOG-PRONE AREAS TO NIGHT. OCCASIONALLY FOG CAN BE
UNDERREPRESENTED IN MODELS IN MARGINAL SETUPS, SO IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED INTO THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP,
TAKE PROPER TRAVEL PRECAUTIONS. ANY FOG SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID-80S. THIS IS AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SW KANSAS.
HIGHS OF AROUND THE MID-80S WILL BE PRESENT ALL WEEK UNTIL AT LEAST
MONDAY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN A SIMILAR FOG ENVIRONMENT
AS TONIGHT, SO IF FOG IS ABLE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT, THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT MORE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW NIGHT. BEYOND THE FOG, NO
ACTIVE WEATHER OR WEATHER HEADLINES ARE FORECAST UNTIL AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE. THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO
HAVE BREEZY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH, BUT NOT ABNORMAL
FOR SW KANSAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH OF AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER RISK. HOWEVER, AS ALWAYS
TAKE PRECAUTIONS WITH IGNITION SOURCES ESPECIALLY AS THE VEGETATION
DRIES OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IF ANY FOG IS ABLE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE
HRRR HAS A TINY POCKET OF LOWERED VISIBILITIES OWING TO FOG AROUND 10-
14Z AT GCK AND A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO REFLECT THAT. LITTLE
FOG SIGNAL IS PRESENT SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH, AND CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT FOR ANY OF THE TAF SITES. MONITOR FOR FUTURE TAFS/UPDATES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
(AROUND 5 KTS) OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO START AND BECOME VARIABLE
WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND
12-18Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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