437
FXUS63 KDDC 201854
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
154 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
- SHOWERS AND SUB-SEVERE T-STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH HEAVIEST RAINS
WEST OF DODGE CITY AND HAYS.
- COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST IS ADVERTISED BY
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SUITES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS ADVECTING NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESULT
IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS, ALLOWING RICH MOISTURE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN COLORADO. ANY
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL STAY WEST OF KANSAS AND RAIN IS NOT
FORECAST.
BY SATURDAY, DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, ALLOWING FOR THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE,
CLOUDINESS AND POOR LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DISCOURAGE
SEVERE WEATHER, WITH STORMS MARGINALLY SEVERE AT BEST ON
SATURDAY. INSTEAD, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-SEVERE T-STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SAME AREAS MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RAIN
MAY EDGE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY; BUT DRIER AIR TO THE EAST WILL SLOW THIS PROCESS. FOR
THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
SHOWS 60-80% CHANCES FOR AT LEAST .5" OF RAIN AND 40-60% CHANCES
OF 1+" OF RAIN. THIS REPRESENTS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHER TOTALS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DODGE
CITY TO HAYS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, HIGHS SUNDAY MAY NOT GET
OUT OF THE 60S, WITH 50S LIKELY FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS KDDC AND KHYS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL STAY MAINLY AOA050 AND WILL CLEAR OFF AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
06Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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