298
FXUS63 KDDC 210920
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
420 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AMIDST LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
- WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS MODEST TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
- TEMPERATURE TREND REVERSES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS
FALL FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING PRECIPITATION OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING A RANGE OF 0.75-2" OF
TOTAL RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LATE
TUESDAY EVENING REVEAL WEAK RIDGING IS IN PLACE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SIGNIFICANT,
CUT-OFF TROUGH CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REACHES FROM ITS CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, CANADA, SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, RESULTING IN MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, 10-15 MPH WINDS AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL SUPPORT WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STRONG CUT-OFF LOW OUT WEST WILL MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES
CONSIDERABLY, EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. AS A RESULT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
OUR AREA WILL BE REINFORCED, YIELDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERMIT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST ON
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OUT WEST AND THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD INCH EASTWARD. NEVERTHELESS, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
BEGIN IN EAST-CENTRAL MT AND ADJACENT AREAS, WHICH WILL ENGENDER
MORE ROBUST SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS IN THE 15-25
MPH RANGE GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, 850-MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE BY 2- 4 DEGREES C, WHICH
WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE THE STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL STALL OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES IT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL SUPPORT A
STEADY, MODERATE COOLING TREND AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FALL
FROM THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S TUESDAY
AND BEYOND. FURTHERMORE, THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER WAVE
IS IDEAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS, AND THIS IS
INDEED REFLECTED BY THE NBM, WHICH PAINTS PLENTY OF CHANCE
(25-54%) TO LIKELY (55-74%) POPS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AS WELL AS THE ECMWF ENS AND GEFS MEAN
TOTAL PRECIPITATION FIELDS WHICH ARE IN THE 1-2" AND 0.75-1.5"
RANGE, RESPECTIVELY, THROUGH NEXT MONDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH VFR/SKC AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TURNER
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