309
FXUS63 KDDC 212203
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
503 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO LOWER 80S.
- THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS FOR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY.
- CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER FOR
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S EAST.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS FALLING TO THE
UPPER 50S WEST AND 60S IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE HIGH PLAINS, ALLOWING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVANCE
NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICS ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
PERHAPS A BREAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE T-STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER, COOL TEMPERATURES AND POOR LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER ALTOGETHER.
RAIN AMOUNTS AND TIMING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST, WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS UP TO 2" ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE SUITES VARY ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS ON
THE DURATION AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE INDICATES
40-70% CHANCES FOR 1+" OF RAIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS (US-83
AND WEST TO THE STATE LINE) AND SIMILAR CHANCES OF .75" FROM
DODGE CITY TO HAYS. SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LIKELY GET THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN, INCLUDING LOCATIONS SUCH AS PRATT AND
MEDICINE LODGE, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES OF .5" OR GREATER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AFTER PASSING
THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY. THIS
COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 456 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS. THIS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR STRATUS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z, MAINLY IN THE GARDEN CITY AND POSSIBLE
LIBERAL AREAS. CURRENTLY THE CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES FALLING AS
LOW AS 1 MILES APPEAR LOW (30-50%). LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS BY 18Z THURSDAY
WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT
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