861
FXUS63 KDDC 232253
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
553 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ALONG
WITH HIGHS UP NEAR THE 80S.
- MULTIPLES WAVES OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ESPECIALLY IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MAY PRESENT MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.
- AFTER THE RAIN THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN THE 60S NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
RIDGING OVER THE CWA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN ALOFT. THE
OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE IS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD
AND NOW IS PLACES OVER NEVADA. PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA, THE WEATHER WILL BE CALM WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IN THE UPPER 70S AND INTO THE 80S
ACCOMPANIED BY A BREEZY SOUTH WIND AT AROUND 20 MPH AND HIGHER
GUSTS. AN EARLY ROUND OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AT AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE. THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE CWA INTO SATURDAY.
TRENDS THAT WERE EVIDENT YESTERDAY HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWER AND
LATER. THAT HAS REMAINED INTO TODAY'S MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT, THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY THE HEAVY AND TRAINING RAIN,
WILL REMAIN IN COLORADO ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY EVENING, SOME OF
THIS RAIN IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF
KANSAS. A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHTER RAIN IS FORECAST TO PRESS FURTHER
INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN BEING IN
COLORADO, AND THE KANSAS RAIN BEING SPREAD OUT OVER A 48 HOUR
PERIOD, A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. DESPITE
THAT, WITH THE CURRENT QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EVENT REACHING 2-2.5"
IN THE HIGHEST AREAS LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE FLOODING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. OF THE FORECAST
AREA, THE HAMILTON COUNTY VICINITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT THE TREND REVERSES AND THE
SYSTEM/PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTED 50 MILES EASTWARD LEAVING THE
TRAINING PRECIPITATION AND GRADIENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL BLANKETING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SIX COUNTIES AND CAUSING WIDESPREAD ISSUES. AS A
RESULT, MONITOR FOR FUTURE UPDATES AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
HEADLINES/WARNINGS. EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE MUCH
LOWER AT UNDER AN INCH WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL. THE RAIN WITH LACK THE INSTABILITY POSES VIRTUALLY ZERO
SEVERE THREAT (ONLY UP TO 600 J/KG IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS).
BEYOND THIS EVENT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DRAMATICALLY CLOSER TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET WITH NO ACTIVE
WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ON FRIDAY, BUT WITH
THE SYSTEM STILL BEING POORLY RESOLVED THIS FAR OUT, TIME WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MORE SPECIFICS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SURFACE TROUGHING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN 13-18KT
SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO THE
10-14KT RANGE BY 09-12Z, AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
10KTS BY 17-19Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
AT KGCK AS MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...FINCH
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