766
FXUS63 KDDC 241545
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1045 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY FOR MOST OF SW KS SATURDAY, WITH
CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
WEST OF US 83 SATURDAY.
- RAIN WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS SUNDAY, BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF US 83.
- AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH EJECTS INTO KANSAS.
- PLEASANT MILD FALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, WITH
NO FREEZES IN SIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING REVEAL A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ROCKIES, WITH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM EXTENDING FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTHWEST KS RESIDES BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AND A ~997-MB LOW REACHING FROM ITS CENTER IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, A SECONDARY, WEAKER LEE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN KS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAKENING SOUTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEAR
SUNRISE, ALLOWING WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
HOLDING SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60. DAYTIME
SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LOW WILL INCH EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS DPVA INCREASES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN EASTERN CO
AND PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF US-83, AND WILL POSE NO SEVERE THREAT OWING
TO NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
DAYTIME SUNDAY, SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE HREF MEMBERS AND THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES EMERGE AS THE CORE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HREF MEMBERS INDICATE TRAINING
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO
BOTH THE ECMWF ENS AND GEFS WHICH CONFINE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION AGAIN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF US-83. GIVEN THE
TREND OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN A
SLOWER, FARTHER WEST SOLUTION WITH THE LARGEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS, THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FAVORED.
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY
AND PERHAPS EVEN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TAKES ITS SWEET TIME
EJECTING ONTO THE PLAINS, AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ENSEMBLE TOTAL PRECIPITATION FIELDS ONCE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE RANGE FROM 0.5-1.5" ALONG AND WEST OF A
WAKEENEY TO LIBERAL LINE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 2"
POSSIBLE, AND 0.1-0.5" TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S, AND LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MIDLAYER CLOUDS PREVAILING. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SW KS SUNDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THIS EVENING, MOST RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
GCK/LBL, BUT INCLUDED VCSH FOR THOSE AIRPORTS. HYS/DDC WILL
REMAIN DRY. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS ALL SW KS
AIRPORTS DAYLIGHT SUNDAY, WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES GRADUALLY
DEGRADING. LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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