644
FXUS63 KDDC 251552
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1052 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS (0.5 TO
1.5 INCH) WEST OF US 283, AND LESSER AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 0.5
INCH) EAST OF US 283. RAIN WILL BE SPREAD OUT ENOUGH TO
REDUCE THE RISK OF FLOODING, AND THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL MORNING AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
- NO COLD AIR INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF NO FREEZES THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KDDC RADAR OBSERVATIONS LATE SATURDAY EVENING SHOW SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES, COURTESY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
MAKING LITTLE TO NO EASTWARD PROGRESS AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
REMAINS LARGELY STATIONARY. DAYTIME SUNDAY, A RICH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WILL MAKE AT LEAST SOME EASTWARD HEADWAY, REACHING
NEAR US-283 BY SUNSET. NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL
PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT, AND EVEN
THUNDER WILL BE SPARSE, IF EXISTENT AT ALL. PRECIPITATION IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
EJECT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WEST TO THE UPPER 50S EAST.
DAYTIME MONDAY, SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE MORNING, HOWEVER THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING UPPER WAVE
OVERSPREADS SOUTHWEST KS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1- 1.5" RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF US-83,
THE 0.25-1" RANGE BETWEEN US-83 AND US-183, AND JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A PERHAPS A TENTH EAST OF US-183. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF MONDAY, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S.
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER VORTICITY MAX MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS OUR AREA, WHICH
MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. NBM PAINTS SOME CHANCE (25-54%) TO LIKELY (55-74%) POPS
IN RESPONSE THAT PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL BE MAINTAINED, FOSTERING UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT THESE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
RADAR IMAGERY AT 1545Z SUN DEPICTED RAIN SHOWERS EXPANDING
NORTHWARD NEAR LBL/GCK, WITH MVFR STRATUS AT LBL/GCK. THROUGH
00Z MON, WIDESPREAD RAIN, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL
SPREAD ACROSS SW KS, DEGRADING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO AT LEAST
MVFR, IF NOT IFR AT TIMES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z MON, WITH CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGESTING VFR MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL. LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR ARE MOST LIKELY AT LBL/GCK WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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