412
FXUS63 KDDC 251708
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1208 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..UPDATED DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS (0.5 TO
1.5 INCH) WEST OF US 283, AND LESSER AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 0.5
INCH) EAST OF US 283. RAIN WILL BE SPREAD OUT ENOUGH TO
REDUCE THE RISK OF FLOODING, AND THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL MORNING AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
- NO COLD AIR INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF NO FREEZES THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WEAKENING, ELONGATED CLOSED MIDLEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER
UTAH AND ARIZONA AT MIDDAY, PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
RADAR IMAGERY AT NOON DEPICTED WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SW KS. MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF
THE STATIONARY ROCKIES TROUGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED, WITH RADAR
IMAGERY FROM AMARILLO SHOWING RAIN STACKED UP ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MOVING NORTH. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A VERY OBVIOUS
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY, DRAPED SOUTHEAST OF DDC ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT OVERRUNNING THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL GENERATION THROUGH TONIGHT, AS
THE FRONT IS FORCED BACK NORTHWARD, AND WINDS RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHTNING DETECTION DEPICTED SOME STRIKES NEAR
AMARILLO AT MIDDAY, BUT INSTABILITY WAS ABSENT OVER SW KS.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH FORECAST
CAPE < 500 J/KG THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDER FROM THE NBM
GENERATED GRIDS WAS ACCEPTED, BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.
STORM TOTAL QPF GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
GRADIENT IN FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS, FROM NEAR ZERO FAR
EASTERN ZONES, RANGING TO 1-2 INCHES WEST OF US 283.
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS 7 PM MONDAY. AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS TRAILING SHORTWAVES AND LINGERING LIFT
KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT MONDAY, AND NBM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM. 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE IN THE 60S LOOKS MORE REALISTIC, DESPITE WINDS
ACQUIRING SOME SWLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL FINALLY END ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLEAR
THE SKY TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND WELL THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, AND WITH ELEVATED SWLY DOWNSLOPE AND FULL
SUNSHINE, NBM MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. A MILD LATE OCTOBER WILL
CONTINUE, WITH NO COLD AIR INTRUSIONS NOTED, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BOTH SUNRISE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH NO FREEZES, THROUGH HALLOWEEN. EXPECT SW KS
TO REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, HOWEVER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, SHOW A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSH NORTHWARD OUT OF WEST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY. WITH SIMILAR TRENDS FROM ECMWF ENSEMBLES, NBM POPS IN
THE LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY ARE ALREADY IN PLACE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
RADAR IMAGERY AT 1545Z SUN DEPICTED RAIN SHOWERS EXPANDING
NORTHWARD NEAR LBL/GCK, WITH MVFR STRATUS AT LBL/GCK. THROUGH
00Z MON, WIDESPREAD RAIN, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL
SPREAD ACROSS SW KS, DEGRADING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO AT LEAST
MVFR, IF NOT IFR AT TIMES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z MON, WITH CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGESTING VFR MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL. LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR ARE MOST LIKELY AT LBL/GCK WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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