172
FXUS63 KDDC 260518
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1218 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS (0.5 TO
1.5 INCH) WEST OF US 283, AND LESSER AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 0.5
INCH) EAST OF US 283. RAIN WILL BE SPREAD OUT ENOUGH TO
REDUCE THE RISK OF FLOODING, AND THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL MORNING AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
- NO COLD AIR INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF NO FREEZES THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WEAKENING, ELONGATED CLOSED MIDLEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER
UTAH AND ARIZONA AT MIDDAY, PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
RADAR IMAGERY AT NOON DEPICTED WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SW KS. MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF
THE STATIONARY ROCKIES TROUGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED, WITH RADAR
IMAGERY FROM AMARILLO SHOWING RAIN STACKED UP ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MOVING NORTH. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A VERY OBVIOUS
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY, DRAPED SOUTHEAST OF DDC ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT OVERRUNNING THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL GENERATION THROUGH TONIGHT, AS
THE FRONT IS FORCED BACK NORTHWARD, AND WINDS RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHTNING DETECTION DEPICTED SOME STRIKES NEAR
AMARILLO AT MIDDAY, BUT INSTABILITY WAS ABSENT OVER SW KS.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH FORECAST
CAPE < 500 J/KG THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDER FROM THE NBM
GENERATED GRIDS WAS ACCEPTED, BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.
STORM TOTAL QPF GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
GRADIENT IN FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS, FROM NEAR ZERO FAR
EASTERN ZONES, RANGING TO 1-2 INCHES WEST OF US 283.
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS 7 PM MONDAY. AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS TRAILING SHORTWAVES AND LINGERING LIFT
KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT MONDAY, AND NBM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM. 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE IN THE 60S LOOKS MORE REALISTIC, DESPITE WINDS
ACQUIRING SOME SWLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL FINALLY END ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLEAR
THE SKY TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND WELL THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, AND WITH ELEVATED SWLY DOWNSLOPE AND FULL
SUNSHINE, NBM MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. A MILD LATE OCTOBER WILL
CONTINUE, WITH NO COLD AIR INTRUSIONS NOTED, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BOTH SUNRISE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH NO FREEZES, THROUGH HALLOWEEN. EXPECT SW KS
TO REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, HOWEVER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, SHOW A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSH NORTHWARD OUT OF WEST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY. WITH SIMILAR TRENDS FROM ECMWF ENSEMBLES, NBM POPS IN
THE LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY ARE ALREADY IN PLACE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
AVIATION WEATHER WILL REMAIN TRICKY TO FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE LATE MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THE LAST OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE
OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS. HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY RAISE
THE CEILING WELL ABOVE 3000 FEET. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF RAIN
AREAS, WILL BE WATCHING HYS AND GCK AIRPORTS CLOSELY FOR
INTERMITTENT IFR OR EVEN LIFR AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. AVIATION WEATHER WILL IMPROVE BY MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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