588
FXUS63 KDDC 261509
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1009 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- THE MAJORITY OF THE BENEFICIAL RAIN EVENT HAS ENDED, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH BOTH
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
FRIDAY, FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
- NO COLD AIR INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SOUTH
WINDS PREVAILING AND NO FROST OR FREEZES. THE NEXT STRONG
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY, WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
WESTERN KANSAS REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT
OF THE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON
MONDAY. A STORM TRACK OF THIS TYPE WILL LEAD TO NEGLIGIBLE COLD
FRONT PUSH AND WILL HELP KEEP THE REMNANT WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. AS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING'S REMNANT SHOWERS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH FAIRLY SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY (YET STILL FAIRLY MOIST) AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES MONDAY LATE AFTENOON AND EVENING AND
SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES 500 TO 1000 J/KG THANKS TO A LITTLE
BIT OF INSOLATION, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LIBERAL TO DODGE
CITY TO LARNED LINE. NBM POPS OF 40-70% APPEAR GOOD WITH NO
ADJUSTMENT NECESSARY. ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY
WINDS, BUT GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE CAPE GREATER THAN
1000 J/KG, NO SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.
MOVING AHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK, THE THEME WILL BE WARM
TEMPERATURES AS THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REVERT
QUICKLY BACK TO LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE WEST WITH HIGHER MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THUS, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL FAVOR WARM
TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS
WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS WELL INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE NOWHERE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT SUNDAY WITH LOWS MOST MORNINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S WEST TO MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
RADAR AT 15Z MON SHOWED THE LAST STRATIFORM RAIN BAND HAD CLEAR
THE AIRPORTS TO THE EAST, AND THE PRIMARY STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT
HAS ENDED. DRY WEATHER WILL NOW PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ENOUGH TO CARRY A VCSH
MENTION INTO THIS EVENING, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW MVFR/IFR STRATUS EXPANDING
SOUTH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND THIS
TREND WAS FOLLOWED IN THIS SET OF TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH NO IMPACTS ON AVIATION.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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