551
FXUS63 KDDC 261717
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1217 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..UPDATED DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE MAJORITY OF THE BENEFICIAL RAIN EVENT HAS ENDED, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH BOTH
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
FRIDAY, FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
- NO COLD AIR INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SOUTH
WINDS PREVAILING AND NO FROST OR FREEZES. THE NEXT STRONG
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY, WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT MIDDAY
AS EXPECTED, WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS BISECTING SW KS.
LATE MORNING RADAR SHOWED THE FINAL STRATIFORM RAIN BAND
WEAKENING AND EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES, AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAIN EVENT HAS ENDED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT HAVE BEEN
COMMONLY 0.5 - 1 INCH, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR HUGOTON, NEAR
2 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AS FINAL TRAILING
SHORTWAVES ARRIVE, AND BEFORE THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS EJECTS
EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
VERSUS THE STRATIFORM RAIN OF THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS. AS SUCH, NBM
POPS FOR TONIGHT SEEM TOO WET, BUT WERE ACCEPTED IN THE LIKELY
TO DEFINITE CATEGORY. INSTABLITY HAS BEEN WEAK TO ABSENT THROUGH
THIS EVENT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE, AS SUCH THUNDER
WILL BE LIMITED TO ABSENT THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF DODGE
CITY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SUBSIDENCE CLEARING THE SKY AND ENDING ALL
RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW MODEST WARMING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
TUESDAY, AND ALONG WITH IMPROVED SOUTHERLY MIXING AND MORE
SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. STRONGER WARMING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 -
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BOTH REMAIN DRY, WITH CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
FRIDAY, A STRONG 540 DM CLOSED CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE, BROAD SWLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE
PLAINS, ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
SUGGESTING A TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE (SOME OF IT REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE VANCE) WILL BECOME
ENTRAINED IN THE SW MIDLEVEL FLOW, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO SW KS ON FRIDAY. POPS AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE CURRENT NBM POP
ALIGNMENT IN THE GRIDS SUGGESTS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY,
AND INTO NOVEMBER, WITH BOTH AFTERNOON AND SUNRISE TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS HINT A STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PASSAGE AROUND MONDAY NOVEMBER 2ND. WINDS MAY
APPROACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT IS MUCH
TOO SOON FOR ANY DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
RADAR AT 15Z MON SHOWED THE LAST STRATIFORM RAIN BAND HAD CLEAR
THE AIRPORTS TO THE EAST, AND THE PRIMARY STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT
HAS ENDED. DRY WEATHER WILL NOW PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ENOUGH TO CARRY A VCSH
MENTION INTO THIS EVENING, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW MVFR/IFR STRATUS EXPANDING
SOUTH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND THIS
TREND WAS FOLLOWED IN THIS SET OF TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH NO IMPACTS ON AVIATION.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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