589
FXUS63 KDDC 270532
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1232 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE MAJORITY OF THE BENEFICIAL RAIN EVENT HAS ENDED, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH BOTH
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
FRIDAY, FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
- NO COLD AIR INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SOUTH
WINDS PREVAILING AND NO FROST OR FREEZES. THE NEXT STRONG
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY, WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT MIDDAY
AS EXPECTED, WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS BISECTING SW KS.
LATE MORNING RADAR SHOWED THE FINAL STRATIFORM RAIN BAND
WEAKENING AND EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES, AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAIN EVENT HAS ENDED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT HAVE BEEN
COMMONLY 0.5 - 1 INCH, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR HUGOTON, NEAR
2 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AS FINAL TRAILING
SHORTWAVES ARRIVE, AND BEFORE THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS EJECTS
EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
VERSUS THE STRATIFORM RAIN OF THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS. AS SUCH, NBM
POPS FOR TONIGHT SEEM TOO WET, BUT WERE ACCEPTED IN THE LIKELY
TO DEFINITE CATEGORY. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN WEAK TO ABSENT
THROUGH THIS EVENT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE, AS SUCH
THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED TO ABSENT THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
DODGE CITY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SUBSIDENCE CLEARING THE SKY AND ENDING ALL
RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW MODEST WARMING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
TUESDAY, AND ALONG WITH IMPROVED SOUTHERLY MIXING AND MORE
SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. STRONGER WARMING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 -
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BOTH REMAIN DRY, WITH CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
FRIDAY, A STRONG 540 DM CLOSED CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE, BROAD SWLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE
PLAINS, ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
SUGGESTING A TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE (SOME OF IT REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE VANCE) WILL BECOME
ENTRAINED IN THE SW MIDLEVEL FLOW, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO SW KS ON FRIDAY. POPS AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE CURRENT NBM POP
ALIGNMENT IN THE GRIDS SUGGESTS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY,
AND INTO NOVEMBER, WITH BOTH AFTERNOON AND SUNRISE TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS HINT A STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PASSAGE AROUND MONDAY NOVEMBER 2ND. WINDS MAY
APPROACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT IS MUCH
TOO SOON FOR ANY DETAILS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE VERY POOR THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS
ADVANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. THE GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL FAVOR FOG (POSSIBLY
DENSE AT TIMES) DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY AFFECTING GCK, DDC, AND
HYS. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SCENARIO TO LOWER
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2SM AT GCK AND DDC. THE AXIS OF FOG WILL
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME AND WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS NORTH. LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
LIKELY AT HYS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH IFR THEREAFTER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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