536
FXUS63 KDDC 270645
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
145 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE, DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE. ANY
DENSE FOG AREAS WILL SHIFT NORTH TOWARD I-70 THROUGH THE
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS NORTHWARD WITH 0.50" OR MORE RAIN
(50-65% CHANCE FOR LIBERAL, DODGE CITY, LARNED AND POINTS EAST
AND SOUTH).
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS A LARGER SCALE STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
THE LAST OF THE RAIN WAS SLOWLY FALLING APART AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTH YESTERDAY AND REACHED A LINE
FROM JUST NORTH OF ELKHART-HUGOTON TO AROUND DODGE CITY TO NEAR
SAINT JOHN AT 06Z (1 AM CDT). THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A
WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AS WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVANCE
NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER UPSTREAM POLAR JET STREAK MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
AS THE FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THIS MORNING,
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG IN THE
WX GRIDS, AND EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE NOT ISSUED A HEADLINE (YET) FOR
DENSE FOG, IT IS SOMETHING THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE ROUGHLY 5 AM TO 11
AM TIME FRAME. REGARDLESS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OR NOT,D LOW STRATUS
CLOUD WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND VERY DIFFICULT TO SCATTER OUT MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES, AND WE
HAVE LOWERED THESE AS WELL TOWARD THE LATEST 00Z REFS 50TH
PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES. TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST UP ALONG I-70 MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO WARM. THAT BEING SAID,
THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD IS QUITE WARM
AND MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F, WHICH IS
RATHER ANOMALOUS FOR 27 OCTOBER.
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL
BE WELL INTO THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS, AND THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AT
THE SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM(S) PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
AND THIS WILL KEEP THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE
NEXT RATHER SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM/SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC JET
ENTERS NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS BY
THE TIME WE GET TO LATE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EMERGE IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE EXTENDED
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER WEST TEXAS AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN KANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO HAVE UNABATED ACCESS TO ANOMALOUSLY HIGH GULF
MOISTURE WHICH WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD AND SUPPORT A FAIRLY ROBUST
RAINFALL EVENT, AGAIN, ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PLAINS. IT WILL ALL COME DOWN TO STORM TRACK FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FAVORED MORE ACROSS WEST TEXAS, PUSHING
INTO THE PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER. THE LATEST 01Z NBM DOES HAVE 0.50" PROB OF
EXCEEDANCE IN THE 50-65% RANGE FOR THIS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
SYSTEM.
GOING BEYOND INTO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK, MORE AND MORE GLOBAL
MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING A CONSTRUCTIVE PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN POLAR JET STREAM WITH THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET INTO A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE ARE ALL JUST
EARLY SIGNALS AT THIS POINT, AND THE FOCUS INITIALLY WILL BE ON FINE-
TUNING THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE VERY POOR THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS
ADVANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. THE GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL FAVOR FOG (POSSIBLY
DENSE AT TIMES) DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY AFFECTING GCK, DDC, AND
HYS. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SCENARIO TO LOWER
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2SM AT GCK AND DDC. THE AXIS OF FOG WILL
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME AND WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS NORTH. LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
LIKELY AT HYS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH IFR THEREAFTER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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