931
FXUS63 KDMX 282335
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
535 PM CST THU NOV 28 2024
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED BELOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES (20-40%) FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH AND MOST LIKELY NEAR THE MO BORDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU NOV 28 2024
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND, BRINGING A
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOWFALL. FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE STRATUS LAYER INTERSECTS THE DGZ AT
ABOUT 3K FT AGL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CEASE AS THE CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY ERODES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
A COLD 1030+ MB HIGH LOCKS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL
KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE MEAN
FLOW ALOFT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOWFALL AS BROAD THERMAL FORCING INTERACTS WITH
A ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FGEN. MODEL CONSENSUS, INCLUDING THE
GEFS/ECENS/HREF MEANS, CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH JUST
A LIGHT SNOWFALL AND THE KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR 1"+ OF SNOW
SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. THE NAM FAMILY REMAINS A NOTABLE
NORTHERLY OUTLIER WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS I-80. A
MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION WILL ALSO NEED TO OVERCOME A WEDGE OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE PRECIP FROM THE NORTH.
FORECAST IS ALIGNED WITH THE BULK OF GUIDANCE AND PREFERS THE
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH A BROAD BRUSHED 20-40% POP. ANY
LINGERING SNOWFALL DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS DISLODGED AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
CENTRAL CONUS. LATEST NBM WARMS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MEAN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS.
THE LOCAL AIRMASS IS DEVOID OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND
SQUASHES ANY MEANINGFUL CHANCES, WITH THE PASSING WAVES ONLY
PROVIDING TRANSIENT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST THU NOV 28 2024
MVFR STRATUS IS GRADUALLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS ALL SITES. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MARTIN
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF
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