394
FXUS63 KDMX 300429
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1029 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2024
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD MORE NORMAL LEVELS MIDWEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE LIGHT SNOW FAR SOUTH EARLY SAT
(25-35%), BEST POTENTIAL SOUTH OF IOWA.
- A FEW FLURRIES LATE SATURDAY, MAINLY NORTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2024
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A LARGE UPPER
LOW ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS SET TO
MAINTAIN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK KEEPING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY, A WEAK WAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA IS PRODUCING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE
BULK OF ANY SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE,
IT REMAINS QUITE BRISK OUTSIDE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND WIND
CHILLS HOLDING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TONIGHT, A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE PASSES FROM THE EASTERN
ROCKIES INTO KANSAS AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY SATURDAY. A
BAND OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI
CLIPPING SOUTHERN IOWA. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM AS SATURATION
DEEPENS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THIS AREA AND EXPAND AS
THE PRECIPITATION HEADS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. WITH IOWA BEING
CLIPPED BY THE FORCING AND DEEPER SATURATION, SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES (30-40%) ARE EXPECTED TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE FAR SOUTH
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE FIGHTING A NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER, THEREFORE
ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN A DUSTING AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM
DEPARTS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANY SNOWFALL
ENDING BY LATE MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE STATE
FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME MORE CLOUDS AND THE
THREAT OF A FEW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. AND...ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE THREAT
OF MORE FLURRIES...AND ONCE AGAIN ANY IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS JET PLACEMENT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE IS ALLOWING CANADIAN AIR TO FREELY FLOW
INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SOME
MODERATION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS A
BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST. THIS HELPS TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL BY TUESDAY OR SO, HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS COLDER AIR SURGES BACK IN BEHIND THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DURING THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF
EVENTS (<0.05") MAY OCCUR WITH THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT
CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON A FREQUENT BASIS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2024
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. A BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IOWA HAS STAYED JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LOWER MVFR STRATUS IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE MN BORDER
INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. THE STRATUS WILL AVOID KMCW AND KALO ON
CURRENT TRAJECTORY, BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ADDITIONAL
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST. CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO REACH ANY OF OUR TAF SITES, AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT MVFR
CIG/VISBY WOULD BE REALIZED SHOULD THE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW BE
OBSERVED.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...COGIL
AVIATION...MARTIN
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