959
FXUS63 KDMX 030536
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1136 PM CST MON DEC 2 2024
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- STRENGTHENING AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH OVER NORTHERN
IOWA.
- NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE SWINGS - COLD TONIGHT, MODERATING INTO
WEDNESDAY, COLDER ON THURSDAY, THEN TURNING MILDER INTO THE
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST MON DEC 2 2024
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLIPPING AWAY FROM THE STATE AFTER
DELIVERING AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL IOWA. THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING INTO IOWA TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
MUCH THE SKY WILL CLEAR WITH THE HREF SHOWING VARYING CLOUD
DECKS OVER THE STATE, THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CLEARING
WOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHEREVER THE SKY IS
CLEAR, THE LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW WOULD RESULT IN A COLDER
THAN INITIAL NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) FORECAST. FOR NOW,
HAVE BLENDED IN LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE NBM GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US ON TUESDAY.
WITH SURFACE FLOW BEING DIRECTED AROUND THIS HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE, WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TICK UPWARD TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING WITH BREEZY WINDS ON TUESDAY. THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, BUT THE FIRST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IOWA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH MUCH OF
THIS INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEING ALOFT. AS THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE STATE IN
THE EVENING, A STRONGER SURFACE PUSH OF CAA WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL
BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GUSTS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RISE COUPLET
AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES THROUGH. THE LATEST ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX HAS INCREASED WITH 70 TO 80% OF ITS MEMBERS HIGHLIGHTING AN
UNUSUALLY WINDY PERIOD COMPARED TO ITS MODEL CLIMATOLOGY OVER MUCH
OF IOWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT EST AND MCW ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF 45 TO PERHAPS 50 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD PUT US IN THE POSITION OF NEEDING A WIND
ADVISORY. THEREFORE, HAVE INCREASED WIND AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WINDY PERIOD. SO WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL
BE MILDER, IT WON'T FEEL LIKE IT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ALSO OF NOTE IN THE
SOUNDINGS WITH THE CAA, LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ALLOWING FOR
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THIS HAS THE HALLMARKS OF BEING
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND HAVE CONTINUED THE LOW
POP MENTION WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHERN IOWA FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH COLDER ON THURSDAY BEHIND THESE COLD FRONTS
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS WILL BE NEAR IF NOT ABOVE
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN SLIM AS IOWA REMAINS BENEATH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SPURIOUS CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY NIGHT LARGELY, BUT OVERALL THERE IS NO
CONSISTENT PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE
NBM AND MUCH OF THE PROBABILISTIC, CLUSTER ANALYSIS, AND AI MODELS
AND SO OUR FORECAST GOES FORWARD DRY AS WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST MON DEC 2 2024
MVFR STRATUS REMAINS STUBBORN ACROSS EASTERN IOWA, IMPACTING
SITES KMCW/KALO. THIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST BY 09Z, HOWEVER WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS IT HAS ALREADY LINGERED LONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGHER VFR CLOUDS
HAVE INCREASED ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL IOWA. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING INTO TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST AT SITES
KFOD/KDSM/KMCW. INTO TUESDAY EVENING LLWS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IT TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANSORGE
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF
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