763
FXUS63 KDMX 151736
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1136 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 30S AND 40S.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -20 OR COLDER
LIKELY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
CLOUD COVER TIED TO A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OUT OVERNIGHT AND IN SOME AREAS HAS
EVEN ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT. REGARDLESS, IT'S BEEN
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TIME WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. LIGHT WINDS HAVE MITIGATED MOST WIND CHILL
CONCERNS, HOWEVER WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS EAST. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS BELOW ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWS
TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH MN/WI LATER IN THE DAY. THE LOCAL AREA
IS CLIPPED BY DEEPER KINEMATIC FORCING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY AS SUFFICIENT LIFT SATURATES THE DGZ.
ADDED LOW END (20-30%) POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOW INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE, SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE AND
LIFT DECREASE WITH SOUTHERLY EXTENT, BUT SOME FLURRIES ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION AS OUR WARM UP CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE 40S FOR FRIDAY. THE
MILD CONDITIONS ARE SHORT LIVED AS WE TAKE ANOTHER POLAR PLUNGE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH AND DISLODGE A COLD AIRMASS BACK INTO
THE THE CONUS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS FORCED THROUGH THE
STATE LATE FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING BOUTS OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL DROP HIGHS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD SNAP PEAKS. PERIODS
OF WIND CHILLS AT -10 TO -20 OR COLDER ARE LIKELY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE ADVISORY
LEVEL COLD IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
DATA SETS ARE NEARLY UNANIMOUSLY DRY THROUGH THIS STRETCH AS THE
AIRMASS IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
REBOUND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS IS
ERODED BENEATH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
MVFR STRATUS REMAINS PESKY AS IT PERSISTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE CLOUD DECK THINNING OUT, BUT
EXPECTING IMPACTS TO CONTINUE AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE STRATUS, A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE
DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING, MAINLY IMPACTING KMCW
AND POTENTIALLY KALO. HOWEVER, COVERAGE AND RATES WILL BE
LIMITED, SO WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE OBSERVATIONS AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WITH
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WHENEVER
GUSTS DROP OFF TONIGHT. FINALLY, MORE MVFR STRATUS DRIFTS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, MAINLY IMPACTING
KMCW AND POTENTIALLY KALO.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MARTIN
AVIATION...DODSON
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