250
FXUS63 KDMX 192320
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
520 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS COLD WITH WIND CHILLS TO -20 OR COLDER AT TIMES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- WARMING BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S BY THE MIDDLE
TO END OF THE WEEK.
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE (20-30% CHANCE) ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS WERE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY, THOUGH DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE WERE ONLY
FAINTLY VISIBLE ON RADAR WHEN IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
RADAR. THIS RESULTED IN A DUSTING OF SNOW IN A FEW PLACES
THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS HAS LARGELY TAPERED OFF THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH LOW, THIN CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
ALSO REMAINED BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH COMMON. HIGH PRESSURE SITS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND
WILL MOVE INTO IOWA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
EASE WINDS AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY, BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALSO INCREASE. AS SUCH, HAVE PULLED
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA.
BITTER COLD CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL WHEN
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED, TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES AS WE TAKE THIS ONE DAY AT A TIME.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WHICH WILL KICK OFF THE
WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE
AREA. A BROAD WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. WITH WEAK FORCING AND
DRY AIR TO CONTEND WITH, QPF REMAINS QUITE LIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME, GEFS AND ENS MEMBERS STILL PULL 50-70% PROBABILITY FOR
MEASURABLE (THAT IS 0.01") QPF ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE NBM
CONTINUES TO UNDER DO THESE SITUATIONS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN ADDED BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD TO BETTER CAPTURE DATA TRENDS. FOR NOW
THESE CHANCES ARE IN THE 20-30% RANGE, HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKLEY
BE A CASE WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW QPF WITH INCREASING POPS
AS THE EVENT NEARS AND CAMS BEGIN TO CAPTURE THE WAVE. AFTER
THIS THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THERE AS THE GFS HAS STARTED
INDICATING A LARGER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE
EURO IS DRY AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT IS NOW SOUTH TO I80 WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
IN COLD/LOWERING CIGS DURING THE PERIOD. MOST SITES WILL SEE
BKN TO OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY 12 TO 13Z WITH PATCHY MVFR MAINLY
AFFECTING MCW AFT 14Z; LASTING TO 19Z THERE. ELSEWHERE MID
LEVEL CIGS EVENTUALLY WILL REACH TOWARD OTM BY 20Z. WINDS QUIET
UNDER 12KTS AFT 02Z WITH INCREASED MIXING AGAIN AFT 13 TO 15Z
MONDAY AND CONTINUING TO SEE GUSTS NEAR 20KT REMAINDER OF
PERIOD. /REV
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST MONDAY FOR
IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>059-070-071.
DISCUSSION...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...REV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page