842
FXUS63 KDMX 200420
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1020 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS COLD WITH WIND CHILLS TO -20 OR COLDER AT TIMES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- WARMING BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S BY THE MIDDLE
TO END OF THE WEEK.
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE (20-30% CHANCE) ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS WERE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY, THOUGH DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE WERE ONLY
FAINTLY VISIBLE ON RADAR WHEN IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
RADAR. THIS RESULTED IN A DUSTING OF SNOW IN A FEW PLACES
THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS HAS LARGELY TAPERED OFF THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH LOW, THIN CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
ALSO REMAINED BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH COMMON. HIGH PRESSURE SITS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND
WILL MOVE INTO IOWA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
EASE WINDS AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY, BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALSO INCREASE. AS SUCH, HAVE PULLED
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA.
BITTER COLD CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL WHEN
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED, TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES AS WE TAKE THIS ONE DAY AT A TIME.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WHICH WILL KICK OFF THE
WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE
AREA. A BROAD WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. WITH WEAK FORCING AND
DRY AIR TO CONTEND WITH, QPF REMAINS QUITE LIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME, GEFS AND ENS MEMBERS STILL PULL 50-70% PROBABILITY FOR
MEASURABLE (THAT IS 0.01") QPF ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE NBM
CONTINUES TO UNDER DO THESE SITUATIONS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN ADDED BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD TO BETTER CAPTURE DATA TRENDS. FOR NOW
THESE CHANCES ARE IN THE 20-30% RANGE, HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKLEY
BE A CASE WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW QPF WITH INCREASING POPS
AS THE EVENT NEARS AND CAMS BEGIN TO CAPTURE THE WAVE. AFTER
THIS THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THERE AS THE GFS HAS STARTED
INDICATING A LARGER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE
EURO IS DRY AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN
AT THE MOMENT, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWERING CIGS WILL ARRIVE
BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z NORTH SITES, WITH EVENTUAL MVFR CONDITIONS
AFFECTING MCW/ALO AND POSSIBLY FOD FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS EACH SITE.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT/WAVE, BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. COVERAGE/IMPACTS
REMAIN LOW AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS AGAIN
INCREASE 12 TO 15KT GUSTING TO 20/22KT MOST SITES THROUGH 00Z;
RELAXING SLIGHTLY AFT 00Z. /REV
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST MONDAY FOR
IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>059-070-071.
DISCUSSION...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...REV
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